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Daily Base Metals Report

Base Metals Surge on China Support

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Equities softened as policy uncertainty offset strong US data.
  • Base metals rallied as China announced support for industrial growth, boosting demand sentiment.
  • Gold and oil edged higher; silver held firm above $38.30/oz.

Macro

US equities declined at the opening, with the S&P 500 softening after breaking record highs yesterday. US data came in stronger than expected, with June housing starts and building permits at 1.321 million and 1.397 million, respectively. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 61.8 in July, its highest level since February, suggesting that consumer confidence remains resilient despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s fiscal and trade policies. The dollar index, which tested 98.9 on Thursday, slipped below 98.3 today, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.43%.

In Japan, core CPI rose 3.3% YoY in June, easing from 3.7% in May, mainly due to the reinstatement of fuel subsidies. While the pace of inflation moderated, the figure still marked the 39th consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The focus now shifts to whether wage growth can remain resilient into next year, particularly in the face of external pressures such as US tariffs.

Base Metals

Base metals closed the week on a strong note, rallying on renewed demand optimism driven by signs of resilience from China. This shift in sentiment helped refocus market attention on fundamental demand dynamics - an area which has been overshadowed by tariff-related supply volatility so far this year. China’s MIIT announced that they would promote the work plan for steady growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals. As a result, copper jumped higher but was capped by previous resistance of $9,800/t, prompting the metals to close at $9,778/t. Aluminium's gains were also robust, strengthening to $2,629.50/t, just short of June high of $2,650/t. Lead and zinc increased, with zinc exceeding the $2,800/t resistance to $2,818.50/t. Lead is now back above $2,000/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold edged higher to $3,355/oz, while silver also gained, holding firm above $38.30/oz. Oil prices climbed steadily through the session, with WTI trading at $68.60/bbl and Brent at $70.50/bbl at the time of writing.

All price data is from 18.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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