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Daily Base Metals Report

Earnings Shine, Gold Fades

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US equities advanced on solid Q2 earnings momentum.
  • Base metals rally faded near resistance.
  • Gold and silver fell; oil steady.

Macro:
US equity markets opened higher on Friday, buoyed by solid corporate earnings. With a growing number of companies surpassing expectations, Q2 is on track to deliver the strongest earnings beat ratio since mid-2021. President Trump, meanwhile, appeared to temper recent tensions with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, helping stabilise broader sentiment. The dollar continued to firm, with the dollar index rising to 97.7, while the US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.4%.

In the UK, retail sales rebounded by 0.9% MoM in June, partially reversing May’s sharp 2.8% decline. Warmer weather helped drive demand for summer goods and fuel, though the broader consumption outlook remains mixed.

Base Metals:
Base metals began this week on a positive note, continuing the rally from Friday, which was driven by a combination of Chinese support for metal industries and a speculative risk-on appetite. However, as the metals approached their respective technical resistance levels, particularly those coinciding with April highs, the upward momentum slowed, leading to a moderate correction by the end of the week.

Aluminium and copper are currently hovering near these highs of $2,650/t and $9,800/t, respectively. In contrast, lead and zinc are further from their April peaks and have been trying to catch up, showing more significant gains this week. Lead is seen approaching the $2,050/t level today, with zinc holding its nerve at $2,850/t.

While this week's movement is encouraging, both technically and speculatively, the markets seem to be running out of steam on the upside. We anticipate a moderate correction across the entire complex in the near term, with August 1st being a key deadline to watch for copper import tariffs.

Precious Metals and Oil:
Gold extended its decline, slipping to $3,333/oz. Silver saw steeper losses, falling below $38.50/oz. Oil prices remained rangebound, with WTI trading at $65.60/bbl and Brent at $68.90/bbl at the time of writing.

All price data is from 25.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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