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Daily Base Metals Report

Risk Mood Improves as Trade Deals Roll In

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US-EU trade agreement boosted sentiment, with equities rising and EUR weakening.
  • Chile is seeking exemptions from US copper tariffs, which has led to a sell-off in COMEX while LME remains stable.
  • Gold slipped on stronger dollar and risk appetite.

Macro

US equity markets opened higher on Monday, supported by easing geopolitical tensions after Washington and Brussels reached a trade deal over the weekend. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods, half of the initially threatened rate, helping to ease tensions between the two trading blocs. In return, the EU has pledged to purchase roughly $750 billion in US energy products and military equipment over the next three years and invest around $600 billion in other American ventures. The euro weakened on the news, with the EUR/USD exchange rate falling below 1.164, while the dollar index advanced above 98.3. US Treasury yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.40%.

Base Metals

The upside pressure continues to fade in the base metals complex, and a slight bearish bias is emerging. The dollar is strengthening, putting pressure on prices. Aluminium edged lower as prices struggled above $2,650/t, prompting the metal to soften into $2,631.50/t. Lead held its nerve above $2,000/t, as zinc is seen approaching the key $2,800/t level.  

Copper remains in focus following news that Chile – the US’s top copper supplier, accounting for 70% of country imports – is seeking an exemption from forthcoming tariffs. If granted, this could significantly ease delivery pressures into US inventories. COMEX prices have responded to the news by falling over 5% to $2,700/mt premium over LME, reflecting reduced urgency in securing domestic supply. 

Markets will closely watch trade developments between the two countries, and in case of an exemption, this could unwind the COMEX/LME arb that has been widening since early 2025. This dynamic is unlikely to be reflected on the LME, with copper prices being volatile but rangebound today, hovering below $9,800/t to settle at $9,793/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold extended its decline, edging closer to $3,300/oz amid renewed investor appetite for risk and a stronger dollar. Silver held broadly steady, trading near $38.10/oz. Oil prices firmed, with WTI and Brent last seen just below $66.50 and 70.00/bbl, respectively.

All price data is from 28.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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