Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Fed Cites Inflation Risks While Holding Rates Steady

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Markets firm ahead of Fed, which has kept rates unchanged, but soft US demand behind strong GDP raises questions.
  • Base metals came under increased selling pressure, driven primarily by technical selling.
  • Dollar climbs while gold and silver ease.

Macro

US equity markets opened higher on Wednesday as investors awaited this evening’s Fed statement. The central bank has decided to keep interest rates unchanged, citing inflation risks linked to tariff uncertainties. Forward swaps have priced out more than 10bps for future cuts this year, indicating approximately 36bps of cuts expected by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, US GDP growth exceeded expectations in Q2, expanding by 3.0% QoQ following a 0.5% contraction in Q1. However, the headline figure masked underlying softness, as much of the improvement stemmed from a sharp drop in imports rather than a genuine pickup in economic activity. Domestic demand, in contrast, registered its weakest increase in two and a half years, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery. In the Eurozone, GDP also surprised to the upside, albeit modestly, rising 0.1% QoQ after a 0.6% gain in Q1. The dollar strengthened further against the euro, pushing the dollar index to near the 100.00 mark, while the 10-year US Treasury yield edged up to 4.37%.

Base Metals

Base metals came under intensified selling pressure today as prices broke through key psychological support levels, triggering technical weakness. Copper weakened decisively below the $9,760/t support and breaching the next threshold at $9,700/t to settle at $9,698.50/t. Lead also saw a sharp retreat, slipping below the $2,000/t level to $1,992/t. Nickel reversed its earlier gains, falling to $15,021/t, while zinc tested levels below $2,800/t. Aluminium was comparatively more stable, hovering just above the $2,600/t mark at $2,601/t.

Later that day, the Trump administration announced the exclusion of refined copper from US tariffs, which is the most imported form of copper into the US. This decision led to a significant decline in COMEX copper futures, erasing as much as 20% in a single day, as the markets largely disregarded the impact of tariffs. This is likely to contribute to further weakness in copper prices on the LME in the near term.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold declined to $3,303/oz, pressured by dollar strength and pre-Fed positioning. Silver broke below the key $38.00/oz level, slipping to $37.60/oz. Oil prices were little changed, with WTI holding around $69.50/bbl and Brent near $72.50/bbl.

All price data is from 30.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields