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Daily Base Metals Report

Gold Shines as Risk Appetite Wanes

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Fed outlook keeps traders cautious.
  • Base metals soften, with aluminium catching up to copper’s earlier decline.
  • Precious metals continue to shine.

Macro

US equities opened mixed at the start of a week highlighted by the upcoming PCE index, which investors will scrutinise for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Last week’s unanimous rate cut was fully anticipated and generated little market reaction. Futures now price in about 45bps of further easing over the next two meetings, though diverging views among Fed members could inject volatility into markets. Given current economic conditions and sticky services inflation, we expect only one 25bps cut by year end. After several sessions of gains, the 10-year yield held steady near 4.13%, while the dollar index edged lower, hovering around 97.5.

Base Metals 

Base metals weakened today, starting the week on a weak note as the complex struggles to find direction following last week's moves. Today’s weakness comes against a softer dollar, suggesting a growing decoupling between commodity and FX trends. Copper continues to retest the crucial $10,000/t mark, but markets are rejecting prices above this level, prompting a moderate correction to $9,972.50/t. Aluminium weakened sharply, falling to $2,645/t, erasing its September gains. The move appears to be lagging copper's pullback experienced last week, and today's protracted weakness may represent a catch-up adjustment. 

While zinc's prices have also eased, the market is still attempting to consolidate near recent highs, with prices hovering just below $2,900/t and holding within Friday's trading range. The cash to 3-month spread continues to tighten further into backwardation, to $50.91/t, as fundamental tightness in Europe is building and Asia flows remain healthy. Lead is cautiously drifting below the $2,000/t mark.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold surged to fresh record highs above $3,720/oz, supported by the softer dollar and persistent central bank diversification away from dollar holdings. Silver extended its rally, breaking $43.65/oz, with renewed demand evident as backwardation returned to the EFP market, indicating tightness in physical supply. Oil prices fluctuated near recent range lows, with WTI trading around $62.4/bbl and Brent at $66.4/bbl at the time of writing.

All price data is from 22.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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