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Daily Base Metals Report

Copper Surges After Supply Disruption Alert

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Fed Chair Powell offered little clarity on central bank direction, keeping the anticipated 25bps cut in October in place. 
  • Copper rallied, reaching May 2024 highs of $10,340/t due to Freeport’s Grasberg force majeure. 
  • Precious metals’ rally paused, but prices are defending new support levels. 

Macro

US stocks opened on a cautious note, reflecting yesterday’s weakness and indicating potential near-term exhaustion. However, the recent softness has been relatively muted, suggesting this could be a temporary pause before the continuation of the upward trend, which has been supported by ongoing market hedging and increasing confidence in US companies driven by AI. Today, remarks by Fed Chair Powell did not provide much clarity on the central bank’s future direction, creating uncertainty regarding expectations for a rate cut in October. At the time of writing, forward swaps are pricing in a total of 43bps in cuts by year-end, with a 92% probability of a 25bps cut in October. Policymakers are likely to maintain a traditional wait-and-see approach, waiting for additional labour and inflation data to guide their decisions ahead of the next meeting. 

Across the Atlantic, major central banks appear positioned to keep rates unchanged in their upcoming meetings. ECB’s Cipollone reiterated that Europe’s interest rates are adequately set at the moment, citing no significant threats to inflation in either direction. This sentiment is echoed by market expectations, which indicate no rate cuts are anticipated until the end of the year. Similarly, the UK’s stance supports a more hawkish narrative from the BOE in the coming months. 

Despite the yield divergences between the Fed, the BOE, and the ECB, the dollar index rose following positive new home sales data, which increased to 800,000, the highest level since early 2022. This propelled the dollar index from 97.22 to 97.88, with the resistance level at 98.00 limiting any significant upside potential. The 10-year US Treasury yield also edged higher, reaching 4.13%.

Base Metals 

The base metals market opened cautiously this morning. However, news of a force majeure at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia triggered a notable rally in copper prices, which, in turn, lifted the rest of the metals complex. According to Mining.com, the mine produced just under 816,500 tonnes of copper in 2024, accounting for 3.6% of global mined production. As a result, copper prices surged past the critical resistance level of $10,200/t, reaching $10,336.50/t, marking a high not seen since May 2024.

The rest of the complex followed suit, albeit with more moderate gains. Aluminium edged higher, hovering around the $2,650/t level. Lead and zinc also strengthened to $1,995.50/t and $2,938/t, respectively. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Oil futures continued to rise following a tougher US stance on Russia amid the recent geopolitical tensions between the country and NATO. WTI and Brent strengthened to $64.6/bbl and $68.80/bbl, respectively. Meanwhile, precious metals experienced a pause in their rally but remained elevated, maintaining new support levels, with gold and silver currently trading at $3,753/oz and $44.05/oz, at the time of writing.  

All price data is from 24.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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