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Daily Base Metals Report

Positive GDP Boosts Dollar as Copper Pauses Gains

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Stronger US GDP revision boosted Treasuries and the dollar.
  • Copper’s upside stalled by the end of the day as markets reassessed the fundamental implications from Grasberg mine force majeure. 
  • Precious metals diverged, with silver playing catch-up to gold. 

Macro

US stocks opened lower following positive growth figures, which in turn lifted Treasury prices. The US GDP for Q2 2025 was revised upward to an annualised growth rate of 3.8%, up from the previously reported 3.3%. The increase in consumer spending has significantly boosted market confidence in the strength of the US economy. This contrasts with earlier labour figures that suggested signs of economic weakness. As a result, market expectations for the upcoming two cuts by the Fed have been tempered to a total of 39bps, down from 43bps earlier this week. As a result, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose, approaching the key level of 4.20%. Meanwhile, the dollar surpassed the 98.00 mark and is targeting 98.40, which coincides with the 100-day moving average resistance level.

Base Metals 

Following yesterday's rally in copper, today's market showed signs of cooling as the supply disruption failed to lead to sustained gains. Although copper opened higher and attempted to breach the $10,500/t, market sentiment quickly reversed when the fundamental underlying support was seen to be unsustainable. The Grasberg mine, which accounts for 40% of Indonesia's copper production, contributes only 3.5% to the global mined output. We believe that any additional price increases would likely stem from speculative interest rather than from fundamental factors. As a result, markets adjusted their positions, and copper prices fell back to $10,259.50/t. A new support level has now been established at $10,200/t, and we expect the market to test this benchmark to assess whether prices can remain elevated and sustain gains driven by news events.

Other metals remained more subdued. Aluminium rose slightly, crossing the $2,650/t mark to reach $2,658.50/t. Lead and zinc held their nerve at $2,015.50/t and $2,926.50/t, respectively. Nickel opened on the front foot but rejected prices above the $15,400/t level, coming back to $15,279/t. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Oil futures held steady today, with WTI and Brent trading at $64/bbl and $69/bbl, at the time of writing. Meanwhile, moves in precious metals diverged, with gold holding its ground at $3,730/oz, as silver played catch up, jumping to $44.70/oz.

All price data is from 25.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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