Summary
- A quiet US data calendar places greater weight on Fed commentary as the main driver of volatility.
- Copper nearby spreads show signs of re-tightening, which could act as a catalyst for further volatility should this trend accelerate.
- Precious metals stay capped by a firm dollar.
Macro
US equities opened higher at the start of what is expected to be a quieter week due to Thanksgiving. Tomorrow’s key releases include September Retail Sales and PPI, but with September CPI already published, we expect little market reaction. With major labour and inflation data postponed until December, the absence of fresh economic signals in the US means policymakers are likely to become more vocal. We expect views within the Fed to diverge more visibly, creating pockets of volatility as markets attempt to gauge the December policy decision. Although we believe the lack of new data does not support a rate cut next month, uncertainty around the meeting is likely to persist, leaving speeches from Fed officials as a key driver of moves in yields, FX, and equities. The dollar index held around 100.2 for a third consecutive session, a sign that the market is in a consolidation phase. The 10-year Treasury yield held firm above 4.0%.
Base Metals
Base metals markets opened the week on a muted note, with speculative activity subdued. In the absence of compelling macroeconomic drivers (a relatively quiet US economic calendar) and limited fundamental signals, we believe that there is little incentive for prices to break decisively out of current ranges.
The front-end of the copper forward curve has caught our attention, with the cash to 3-month spread returning to a backwardation of $9/t, last observed in late October. A renewed flare-up in this tightness could inject increased volatility into forward pricing and reinforce our view of longer-term support at $10,400/t.
In the meantime, copper remained capped by the $10,800/t resistance, closing at $10,773/t. Aluminium hovered above $2,800/t, as zinc fluctuated around the $3,000/t mark. Lead appears to have established a technical base at $1,980/t following the retracement from recent highs. We believe this could set the stage for a measured rebound, targeting resistance at $2,020/t. Meanwhile, nickel strengthened, benefiting from both mean-reversion flows and headlines regarding a potential slowdown in Indonesian output, with prices firming to $14,699/t.
Precious Metals and Oil
Gold remained confined to a narrow $4,050–4,100/oz range, reflecting a market lacking fresh catalysts ahead of December’s Fed meeting. With Treasury yields stable and the dollar consolidating near recent highs, upside for gold remains limited in the near term. We expect the metal to stay range-bound this week, with direction driven primarily by shifts in rate expectations and the tone of Fed communication. Any sign of policy divergence within the Fed, or a softer dollar later in the week, could offer modest upside, but a sustained rally is unlikely without clearer evidence of slowing US activity or renewed safe-haven demand.
Silver held above 50.0/oz but continues to underperform gold, highlighting the market’s scepticism into year-end. We expect silver to remain more volatile than gold, with any dollar softening offering greater relative upside, though overall price action is likely to remain contained until US data in early December provide a clearer macro signal.
Oil prices fluctuated, trading near the lower edge of their recent range.
All price data is from 24.11.2025 as of 17:30