Summary
- Upside GDP surprise highlights US resilience, but fading consumer confidence points to softer underlying momentum heading into Q4, keeping markets cautious rather than directional.
- Nickel’s rally continued, driven more by liquidity than momentum, suggesting shallow pullbacks in the near term.
- Gold and silver’s push to new highs reflects momentum and allocation flows, leaving prices sensitive to sentiment shifts and dollar moves as liquidity continues to thin.
Macro
US stocks opened higher after the second estimate of Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, growing at 4.3% QoQ. The stronger-than-expected growth print, driven by solid consumer spending and exports, represents the fastest pace of expansion in two years and highlights ongoing pockets of resilience in the US economy.
However, this upbeat growth backdrop contrasts with weaker consumer confidence, which slipped in December to its lowest level in over eight months amid broadening concerns about prices, jobs and trade policy. Strong headline growth alongside declining confidence may signal that underlying momentum is beginning to soften into Q4, a trend the Fed will be watching closely as it evaluates the broader economic outlook.
The dollar softened against major currencies, with the DXY slipping below 98.0, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved higher, briefly testing 4.2%.
Base Metals
Base metals opened today on the front foot, supported by continued upside momentum and a weaker dollar amid thinning year-end liquidity. Copper is cautiously advancing to new highs, having breached the $12,000/t resistance and testing $12,159/t. Zinc also spiked, following copper, but failed to sustain momentum above $3,110/t, closing with a modest rise to $3,100/t. Aluminium opened higher, though resistance at $2,950/t capped the upside, leading to a slight pullback to $2,940/t.
Nickel's rally continued, climbing another $800/t during the day and resulting in 12% gains since last week. According to the COT report for data as of 19 December, the sharp rise in prices appears to have been driven by positioning, with the “Other Financial Institutions” category absorbing risk as liquidity thinned. With investment fund length elevated but largely unchanged, the rally appears more liquidity-driven than momentum-led. We believe that once flow needs are satisfied, pullbacks are likely to be shallow, especially as liquidity remains thin into the year-end.
Precious Metals and Oil
Precious metals extended their strong run, with gold breaking close to $4,500/oz and silver surpassing the $70/oz mark, signalling robust positioning flows and momentum interest even as macro drivers offer a mixed picture. The new nominal highs reflect continued demand for alternative assets amid fading Fed-cut bets and a backdrop of lighter year-end liquidity — a combination that often amplifies moves in both directions. However, given the stretched positioning and the divergence between real-economy indicators, we expect metals to remain sensitive to shifts in sentiment or dollar moves in the near term.
Oil prices were relatively unchanged, with WTI trading below $59.0/bbl and Brent under $62.0/bbl. We expect crude to trade within its recent range in the coming sessions.
All price data is from 23.12.2025 as of 17:30