Summary
- Uncertainty around the Fed’s future continue to weigh on markets.
- End-week squaring saw the entire base metal complex pull back.
- Precious momentum cooled but dip-liquidity remains robust, especially in silver.
Macro
US equities eased into Friday’s session as investors locked in gains following Thursday’s sharp rebound. Geopolitics and earnings remained at the forefront, keeping intra-day sentiment cautious as participants opted to flatten books into the weekend rather than extend risk. With Fed policy debate still unsettled and political noise elevated, equities continued to trade more on headline sensitivity than on macro data.
The dollar held firm, with the DXY consolidating near 99.4, while Treasury yields pushed higher, taking the 10-year above 4.20% as markets digested remarks from Trump suggesting he would prefer not to let Hassett move to the Fed. The comments injected fresh uncertainty into the policy outlook, prompting markets to reprice selection and independence risk rather than macro fundamentals. Into next week, earnings are likely to remain the key driver, with positioning cleaner and investors better placed to re-engage risk once the political dust settles.
Base Metals
Base metals softened into the weekend as traders opted to flatten books after a busy week for spreads and positioning. The pullback looked more like end-week position-squaring than a change in narrative, with longs trimming exposure rather than de-risking across the complex.
Copper saw a big adjustment, sliding toward the $12,700/t area. Aluminium followed the broader tone, easing toward $3,130/t, while nickel consolidated near $17,600/t. Tin extended its corrective phase, retreating toward the $47,900/t area after failing to retain the $50,000/t zone earlier in the week. Zinc and lead also gave back part of recent strength, closing near $3,210/t and $2,050/t, respectively.
Precious Metals
Gold and silver moderated after a powerful run, with silver showing the larger retracement following its recent momentum-driven extension. Both metals saw weekend de-risking and partial profit-taking, but tactical buyers continue to respond quickly to dips, underscoring sustained interest in precious allocation beyond pure geopolitical hedging. We expect renewed inflows next week as participants look to re-engage momentum trades, particularly in silver where positioning reset appears incomplete.
Oil prices edged higher, with WTI hovering near $60/bbl and Brent around $64.5/bbl. Crude continues to balance geopolitical premium against softer demand signals, and with risk into the weekend reduced, price action skew remains range-bound for now.
All price data is from 16.01.2026 as of 17:30