Summary
Macro
US equities rallied at the open in a clear relief move following the announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and safe passage of shipping. The agreement removes the immediate tail risk around energy supply, but remains fragile and dependent on compliance, meaning it should be seen as a pause rather than a resolution.
The reaction across macro assets was decisive. The dollar index fell below 99.0, while the US 10-year yield dropped under 4.30%, as both gave back the geopolitical risk premium built over recent weeks. Oil also fell sharply, with both WTI and Brent dropping below $95/bbl, reinforcing the idea that energy had been the primary driver of the entire move.
The unwind makes sense. Oil drove inflation fears higher, which in turn supported yields and the dollar, while gold failed to act as a consistent safe haven, leaving Treasuries and USD as the main defensive assets. With that premium now being removed, markets are normalising quickly.
Looking ahead, the key question is how durable the ceasefire proves. If it holds, we would expect further easing in oil, a softer dollar and lower yields. However, even if tensions re-emerge, markets may not fully retrace recent moves unless there is a clear disruption to supply, suggesting the sensitivity to headlines could start to diminish.
Base Metals
Base metals jumped at the open but struggled to hold gains, highlighting the difference between initial relief flows and underlying conviction.
Copper and nickel held onto most of their gains, with copper closing above $12,700/t and nickel remaining above $17,000/t. Copper has been resilient throughout the conflict, holding firm despite a stronger dollar and elevated yields. We see clear upside potential if macro conditions normalise, with lower oil, a softer dollar and improved sentiment providing a supportive environment. Nickel also has room to move higher, although it still lacks a clear catalyst to drive sustained momentum.
Aluminium failed to follow through, closing broadly flat around $3,450/t. At these levels, prices remain around 8% above pre-conflict levels, which in fundamental terms implies a full disruption of Middle Eastern supply, despite no confirmation of such a scenario. This suggests that some geopolitical premium remains embedded.
Zinc moved lower, trading back below $3,300/t and effectively returning to pre-conflict levels, indicating that the market has largely unwound its risk premium.
More broadly, we expect the narrative to shift away from geopolitics and back towards trade policy, with President Trump already announcing 50% tariffs on countries supplying Iran with weapons. This introduces a new layer of uncertainty that could become a key driver for metals going forward.
Precious Metals
Precious metals followed a similar pattern to base metals, rallying at the open before giving back part of the gains.
Gold moved higher initially but struggled to hold strength, while silver showed a similar intraday reversal. The price action suggests that, in the near term, bullion may face some pressure, particularly as the unwind in yields and the dollar stabilises and the immediate geopolitical bid fades.
However, the medium-term outlook remains constructive. If the ceasefire holds and energy prices continue to ease, markets are likely to accelerate the repricing of rate cuts already on the way, creating a more supportive environment for precious metals.
Oil prices dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent both falling below $95/bbl, marking a significant unwind of the risk premium.
The next phase is likely to be driven less by geopolitics and more by whether this de-escalation proves durable.
All price data is from 08.04.2026 as of 17:30