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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Lean Into Optimism

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Positive headlines continue to drive markets, with positioning still skewed towards de-escalation despite fragile fundamentals.
  • Base metals are stabilising with selective strength in copper, but lack a clear catalyst for a sustained breakout.
  • Gold remains supported by macro drivers, while oil volatility reflects a shifting risk premium.

Macro

US equities held yesterday’s levels at the open, with markets continuing to lean into de-escalation headlines despite limited change on the ground. The ceasefire remains partial, with sporadic strikes still reported across the region and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz not yet fully normalised, but sentiment improved after Israel signalled willingness to enter talks, raising hopes that the ceasefire could evolve into something more durable.


What stands out is the market’s reaction function, which has been consistent from the start. Positive headlines continue to be priced more aggressively than negative ones, suggesting that positioning has remained skewed towards a de-escalation scenario even as the underlying situation stays fragile.


The dollar traded around 98.8, continuing to give back its earlier risk premium, while the US 10-year yield remained below 4.3%. We see this as a continuation of the unwind in energy-driven macro pressure, although the move is increasingly dependent on the narrative holding.

Base Metals

Aluminium remained rangebound, holding support around $3,440/t, suggesting that while some geopolitical premium has been removed, underlying tightness continues to anchor prices.

Copper showed relative strength, holding above $12,550/t and testing $12,700/t into the close. The move reinforces copper’s resilience, particularly given the softer dollar, and we continue to see it as well-positioned to benefit if macro conditions continue to normalise.

Zinc moved in line with copper, rising towards $3,330/t, while nickel underperformed slightly, drifting lower to close around $17,160/t and continuing to trade within a narrow range.

Overall, we see the complex gradually rebuilding stability, with macro conditions improving, but still lacking a strong catalyst for a sustained breakout.

Precious Metals

Precious metals strengthened, with gold rising above $4,790/oz and silver moving above $76/oz, extending the recovery seen since the ceasefire announcement. The move reflects continued support from a softer dollar and lower yields, with bullion still trading primarily as a macro asset rather than a pure geopolitical hedge.

Oil prices initially moved higher, with WTI briefly trading above $100/bbl, before softening back towards $97/bbl. The price action reflects ongoing uncertainty, as the ceasefire has reduced immediate supply fears but flows through the region remain fragile, with any shift in the narrative continuing to drive sharp intraday moves.

We see this as a transitional phase. Oil is no longer moving in a straight line higher, but the risk premium has not fully disappeared, leaving markets sensitive to both positive and negative headlines.

All price data is from 09.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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