Summary
- Markets are absorbing the blockade shock quickly, with initial risk pricing fading into a growth-versus-inflation balance.
- Base metals remain bid, with aluminium leading on tightening supply while copper shows persistent buy-on-dips behaviour.
- Oil stays structurally supported by disrupted flows, while precious metals lag, continuing to track macro.
Macro
US equities opened lower as markets reassessed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz following a clear escalation. After the breakdown of weekend talks, the US has now formally initiated a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports and vessels, with warnings that unauthorised ships could be intercepted. While transit to non-Iranian destinations is still technically allowed, shipping flows remain heavily disrupted, with vessels turning away and traffic operating well below normal levels.
The dollar started the week stronger, opening above 99.1, but faded to 98.7, while the 10-year yield held above 4.3%. The initial move reflected a fresh reaction to the US blockade announcement, with markets pricing renewed disruption risk. However, the fade suggests investors are already looking through the immediate shock, balancing energy-driven inflation pressures against the risk that prolonged disruption begins to weigh on growth.
Base Metals
Aluminium led the move, breaking above $3600/t, with the cash-to-three-month spread widening beyond 80 backwardation. This points to renewed physical tightness, suggesting that supply constraints are re-emerging rather than the move being purely driven by positioning.
Copper strengthened throughout the session, with high volumes in the afternoon pushing prices above $13050/t. Copper continues to trade as a macro proxy, but there is little appetite to sell, with the bias leaning towards buying on dips rather than fading strength.
Nickel also moved higher, touching $17800/t, driven by policy developments. China’s sulphuric acid restrictions could impact processing capacity, while Indonesia’s decision to raise its benchmark pricing floor increases the cost base for producers. Together, these factors point to upward pressure on prices even without a strong demand impulse.
Across the complex, nearby spreads have generally softened, with the exception of aluminium. The combination of flatter structures alongside rising prices suggests the move is becoming more fundamentally driven rather than a technical squeeze.
Overall, the complex remains well supported, with both macro and supply-side factors aligning in the near term.
Precious Metals
Precious metals traded softer, with gold moving in a narrow $4700–4740/oz range and silver struggling to hold $74/oz. The continued correlation with oil suggests bullion remains driven mostly by macro factors.
Oil prices opened higher, holding above $102/bbl. With the US blockade now in place, flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained and uneven, with shipping activity still well below normal levels. Ongoing security risks and logistical disruptions continue to support prices, even as the market adjusts to a more prolonged period of restricted supply.
All price data is from 13.04.2026 as of 17:30