Summary
- Markets are pricing a contained conflict, with easing oil, dollar and yields supporting risk assets.
- Base metals remain firm, with copper and nickel leading as positioning and macro conditions improve.
- Precious metals increase, with gold capped below highs while silver shows stronger upside momentum.
Macro
US equities opened higher, moving back towards record levels as markets continued to lean into a de-escalation narrative despite no formal resolution in the Middle East. While the US naval presence and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz remain in place, the absence of fresh escalation has led markets to increasingly treat the conflict as contained.
The dollar softened steadily, while the US 10-year yield moved back below 4.3%, reinforcing the unwind of the earlier risk premium. The move suggests that markets are once again shifting focus away from geopolitical risk and back towards macro conditions, with financial conditions easing as oil prices stabilise.
Base Metals
Base metals remained firm, with the complex continuing to build upside momentum.
Aluminium edged lower, closing around $3560/t, with higher volumes capping the move near $3650/t. The cash-to-three-month spread narrowed to around 57 backwardation, reflecting some easing in nearby tightness as markets priced in de-escalation, even as prices remain elevated.
Copper extended gains, approaching $13300/t, supported by both macro conditions and positioning. The latest COT data showed an increase in speculative net longs after three weeks of stabilisation, reinforcing the view that the market is rebuilding directional conviction. The price action suggests continued upside potential if the current macro environment holds.
Nickel and tin outperformed. Nickel broke above the resistance that had capped prices since early February, rising to $18210/t, while tin moved above $50000/t. The breakout across both metals suggests that markets are becoming more comfortable re-engaging on the long side, particularly where structural or policy-driven support exists.
Overall, the complex remains constructive, with improving macro conditions supporting further upside, although momentum remains dependent on the stability of the broader narrative.
Precious Metals
Precious metals extended gains, with gold trading around $4810/oz but continuing to struggle to break resistance near $4840/oz. Despite the recent recovery, gold remains around 9% below its pre-conflict highs, reinforcing the view that it has not acted as a primary geopolitical hedge during this period. Instead, price action continues to reflect its sensitivity to macro drivers, particularly the dollar and yields.
The inability to reclaim previous highs, even as uncertainty persists, suggests that investor positioning has not meaningfully shifted back into gold as a defensive asset. This leaves the metal dependent on further easing in financial conditions to drive the next leg higher.
Silver outperformed, breaking above $79.2/oz, pointing to stronger participation and a more constructive near-term setup. The relative strength versus gold suggests a broader re-engagement across the complex, with silver benefiting both from improved sentiment and its higher beta to macro shifts.
Oil prices softened further, with WTI around $93/bbl and Brent near $96/bbl. The decline reflects continued easing in the risk premium, although flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, suggesting that the market is increasingly pricing a contained rather than resolved disruption.
Looking ahead, the key dynamic remains unchanged. Markets are behaving as if the conflict is no longer escalating, which supports risk assets and metals. However, with no formal resolution in place, the setup remains vulnerable to any shift in the narrative.
All price data is from 14.04.2026 as of 17:30