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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Look Through Geopolitics As Data Resilience Takes Focus

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Markets are rotating towards macro resilience, with geopolitics increasingly treated as a contained risk.
  • Base metals remain supported, but early exhaustion signals are emerging in copper, nickel and tin.
  • Oil is stable but still capped by Hormuz uncertainty, keeping the broader macro environment balanced. 

Macro

US equities were mixed, with the Dow lower while broader indices moved higher, as markets continued to rotate and look through geopolitical risks. Investors focused instead on signs of resilience in the US economy, with Bank of America pointing to steady consumer spending despite higher fuel costs and a volatile start to the year. The tone suggests that markets are increasingly comfortable treating the Middle East conflict as a contained risk, with the S&P 500 moving closer to record highs. 

Oil prices remained volatile but broadly stable, with markets balancing Trump’s comments that the conflict is nearing an end against the ongoing risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar hovered above 98, while the 10-year yield edged slightly higher but remained below 4.3%, pointing to a relatively stable macro environment.

Base Metals

Base metals remained firm, with selective strength across the complex.

Aluminium pushed higher, breaking above 3620/t later in the session. However, the cash-to-three-month spread narrowed further to around 30 backwardation, suggesting that near-term tightness is easing, likely reflecting reduced urgency around securing prompt material as geopolitical fears fade.

Copper was broadly flat around 13300/t, consolidating after recent gains, while nickel moved higher to test 18400/t but failed to hold those levels, slipping back below 18200/t. Tin is showing a similar pattern. Across all three, price action is starting to point to early signs of exhaustion, which is something to be mindful of given the recent strength.

Zinc and lead were the standout performers, rising to $3400/t and $1960/t respectively, pointing to stronger flow-driven buying within the complex.

Precious Metals

Precious metals edged lower, with gold slipping below $4800/oz and silver hovering around $79/oz. 

Oil prices remained steady, with WTI around 92.6/bbl and Brent near 95.7/bbl. The stability suggests that while the risk premium has eased, uncertainty around flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to cap downside, leaving oil in a holding pattern.

Looking ahead, the key theme is clear. Markets are increasingly focused on macro resilience and demand conditions, with geopolitics still relevant but no longer the dominant driver unless there is a renewed escalation.

All price data is from 15.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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