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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Fade Early Optimism As Ceasefire Uncertainty Returns

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Markets continue to rebuild risk premium on negative headlines, with volatility driven by shifting ceasefire expectations.
  • Base metals are holding but showing less conviction, with copper support still intact but increasingly fragile.
  • Oil is firming again, while precious metals remain rangebound, waiting for a clearer directional catalyst.

Macro

US equities opened higher but reversed course, with losses driven largely by weakness in Big Tech and a more cautious tone around the Middle East. Markets are increasingly focused on whether the current ceasefire framework can be extended, with US officials signalling that military action could resume if negotiations with Iran fail. This has reintroduced uncertainty, reinforcing the idea that the situation remains unresolved despite periods of optimism.

The dollar edged back above 98.2 after dipping below 97.8 the previous day, while the US 10-year yield moved up towards 4.3%. The pattern remains consistent: markets ease risk premium on positive headlines, only to rebuild it as doubts emerge around the durability of any agreement.

Base Metals

Base metals were mixed, with price action showing less conviction.

Aluminium moved higher, briefly trading above $3660/t before closing around $3650/t, maintaining a firm tone. Zinc also strengthened, trading above $3400/t but stopping short of resistance near $3440/t, leaving room for a potential test if momentum carries into the next session.

Copper was broadly flat, easing slightly after touching $13370/t. Higher volumes emerged on the downside, preventing a break below $13200/t. This suggests that while selling pressure is beginning to build, the market is still being defended at current levels. However, this balance looks fragile and could shift quickly, particularly if negative headlines drive a stronger dollar.

Precious Metals

Precious metals traded in a narrow range, reflecting a lack of clear direction. Gold held between support at $4780/oz and resistance near $4848/oz, while silver hovered around $79/oz. Without a clearer signal on the conflict, bullion remains rangebound and reactive rather than directional.

Oil prices edged higher, with WTI above $93/bbl and Brent approaching $99/bbl. The move reflects a modest rebuilding of the risk premium, as uncertainty around the ceasefire persists.

Looking ahead, the key driver remains headlines. Markets are oscillating between optimism and caution, and until there is a clearer outcome on the conflict, we expect continued volatility across assets.

All price data is from 16.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

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