Summary
- Ceasefire tensions are re-emerging, but markets are rebuilding risk premium only gradually.
- Base metals remain supported by supply constraints, with a clear buy-the-dip dynamic in place.
- Oil is reacting to renewed disruption risk, while precious metals stay rangebound and macro-driven.
Macro
US equities opened lower as markets reacted to renewed tension in the Strait of Hormuz following US enforcement of the naval blockade. The seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel has raised concerns that the ceasefire framework is beginning to fray, with the risk of escalation back on the table. This marks a shift away from last week’s de-escalation narrative, bringing uncertainty back into focus.
The dollar started the week firmer but faded towards 98.0, while the US 10-year yield hovered around 4.25%. The price action suggests that while geopolitical risk has re-emerged, markets are not yet fully rebuilding the previous risk premium, instead remaining cautious and reactive to further headlines.
Base Metals
Base metals were subdued, with limited follow-through as markets paused after recent strength.
Aluminium edged slightly lower, hovering around $3555/t, while copper remained rangebound near $13275/t. Nickel also traded sideways around $18250/t. The lack of directional move suggests that, for now, the complex is waiting for clearer signals from macro and geopolitical developments.
Lead stood out, rising sharply to$ 1975/t, with the cash-to-three-month spread moving into backwardation around 6. This points to tightening in the nearby structure and stronger demand for prompt material.
The outlook remains uncertain, but underlying supply constraints are keeping the bias skewed to the upside. Downside appetite appears limited, with any dips likely to be well supported by buying interest, reinforcing a buy-the-dip dynamic.
Price risks remain asymmetrically higher across the complex, although momentum has cooled compared to a month ago. In aluminium, upside risks persist, but the move is expected to be more gradual and less explosive than previously.
Overall, the tone remains stable but cautious, with metals holding elevated levels but lacking a catalyst for a sustained move in either direction.
Precious Metals
Precious metals were flat, with gold trading around $4800/oz and silver just below$ 80/oz. The lack of movement reflects a balance between renewed geopolitical uncertainty and still relatively stable macro conditions.
Oil prices opened higher on renewed disruption concerns, with WTI above $88/bbl and Brent near $95/bbl, before easing back later in the session. The price action reflects the market reassessing supply risks as the situation in the Strait becomes more unstable.
Looking ahead, the key dynamic is shifting again. The brief period of normalisation is being challenged, and markets are moving back towards a more cautious stance, with direction likely to remain headline-driven.
All price data is from 20.04.2026 as of 17:30