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Daily Base Metals Report

Ceasefire Extended

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Authors
Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Ceasefire extension is being questioned, with markets focusing on continued disruption in the Strait.
  • Base metals are breaking higher, with copper leading, although follow-through will depend on macro stability.
  • Oil remains supported by Strait disruptions, while precious metals stay rangebound and reactive.

Macro

US equities opened higher, recovering part of the recent losses, as President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. However, the move failed to fully reassure markets, as it was not matched by progress on the ground.

In reality, tensions escalated further. Iran seized multiple vessels and fired on others in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US maintained its naval blockade, leaving shipping flows severely disrupted. This highlights the current contradiction: a ceasefire exists politically, but operationally the conflict remains active.

The dollar traded above 98.5, rebuilding some of the geopolitical risk premium, while the US 10-year yield hovered below 4.3%. Markets are no longer reacting purely to headlines, but to the gap between diplomatic signals and actual developments.

Base Metals

Base metals moved higher across the board, with the complex continuing to build upside momentum.

Copper broke above resistance at $13380/t and pushed towards $13450/t, with the move met by strong volumes. The breakout opens the way for a further leg higher, particularly if the dollar remains contained.

Aluminium also strengthened, breaking above $3600/t, with the cash-to-3-month backwardation widening to around $57. This points to renewed tightness in the nearby structure, supporting the move higher.

Zinc followed, breaking resistance and testing $3490/t before easing back to close around $3470/t. The shift into backwardation suggests improving near-term conditions, although the inability to hold highs shows selling interest is still present.

Overall, the complex is building upward momentum, but remains highly sensitive to macro and geopolitical developments.

Precious Metals

Precious metals were rangebound, with gold rising above $4770/oz before falling back towards $4730/oz, and silver testing $78.5/oz before easing to around $77.7/oz. The lack of direction reflects the balance between a firmer dollar and ongoing uncertainty.

Oil prices moved higher again, with WTI around $93/bbl and Brent near $102/bbl, as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz intensified despite the ceasefire extension. The continued rise in prices reflects the market’s recognition that the physical system remains constrained, regardless of diplomatic messaging.

Looking ahead, the key shift is clear. Markets are no longer trading the ceasefire itself, but whether it has any real impact. As long as shipping remains disrupted and both sides continue tactical escalation, the risk premium is likely to persist.

All price data is from 22.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

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