Summary
- Oil continues to price disruption, while equities remain focused on growth resilience.
- Dollar softness contrasts with elevated yields, highlighting mixed macro signals
- Metals remain supported but lack momentum, with upside increasingly contested.
Macro
US stocks hovered near historical highs at the start of a heavy week for markets, with five of the Magnificent Seven due to report earnings alongside key central bank decisions.
The Fed, ECB and BoE are all in focus, with investors looking for guidance on how policymakers are balancing resilient equity markets against the inflationary impact of the ongoing energy shock.
The US-Iran situation remains unresolved. Mediators are still trying to bridge the gap between the two sides, but face-to-face talks have failed to restart, while Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz only if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends. For now, the Strait remains heavily restricted, with only limited vessel traffic moving through.
Oil moved higher as the stalled talks kept disruption risk in place, with Brent trading above $108/bbl and WTI above $96/bbl. The dollar dropped below 98.4, while the US 10-year yield held above 4.3%. This leaves markets in a difficult position: equities are still pricing resilience, but oil is increasingly pricing persistent disruption.
Base metals
Base metals were muted, with price action turning more selective.
Copper remained stuck in its range, struggling to hold above $13,350/t before closing around $13,215/t. The lack of follow-through suggests that while downside appetite remains limited, the market is still waiting for a fresh catalyst before extending higher.
Aluminium briefly tested resistance around $3,630/t before reversing lower on higher volumes as it moved back towards $3,580/t. The rejection suggests selling interest remains active at the top of the recent range, even though the cash-to-three-month spread remains in backwardation around $68, indicating continued tightness in nearby structure.
Nickel surged briefly to $19,540/t before easing back towards $19,160/t, with the recent support area still holding. The move reinforces nickel’s stronger tone, supported by supply-side and policy-driven narratives, although the inability to sustain the spike suggests momentum remains vulnerable to profit-taking at higher levels.
Precious metals and oil
Precious metals stayed rangebound, with gold trading around $4,670/oz and silver just above $75/oz. The lack of direction reflects the balance between a softer dollar, elevated yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil remained the clearest expression of geopolitical risk, with prices rising as US-Iran talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted. As long as oil stays elevated, it will continue to shape the broader macro narrative through inflation expectations, central bank communication and currency moves.
Looking ahead, the key risk is that markets are treating equities as if the conflict is contained, while oil is still pricing a disrupted physical system. That divergence leaves the broader market vulnerable if central banks push back against easing expectations or if Hormuz disruption persists into May.
All price data is from 27.04.2026 as of 17:30