Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Oil Risk Intensifies

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Oil continues to price disruption, keeping inflation risks and yields elevated.
  • Dollar strength is pressuring metals, with copper breaking below its range.
  • Supply-side constraints are building in nickel.

 

Macro

US equities held broadly steady, hovering around pre-conflict levels as markets balance strong positioning with a heavy week of catalysts ahead. Focus remains on megacap earnings and central bank communication, with the Fed in particular under scrutiny as elevated oil prices complicate the inflation outlook.

The US–Iran situation remains unresolved and has shifted into a prolonged standoff. Negotiations are ongoing but stalled, with Washington reviewing Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while rejecting key elements around nuclear discussions. At the same time, both sides continue to assert control over the Strait, which remains effectively restricted with limited vessel traffic. This leaves the system disrupted rather than resolved, with oil markets reflecting ongoing supply constraints rather than de-escalation.

Oil moved higher, with Brent above $111/bbl and WTI around $100/bbl, as disruption persists and around 10mb/d of flows remain impacted. The dollar index held above 98.6, while the US 10-year yield moved higher above 4.35%, reflecting the continued influence of energy-driven inflation on rates.

Base metals

Base metals were weaker, with the stronger dollar pushing the prices below the recent support levels.

Copper broke lower out of its recent range, touching $13,000/t before stabilising around $13050/t The break suggests the market is no longer being actively defended at previous levels, opening the door to further downside if macro pressure persists.

Aluminium extended losses but held support around $3,512/t. Narrowing backwardation below $60 suggests that nearby tightness is easing at the margin, as supply disruptions are increasingly being offset by a shift in trade flows, with buyers sourcing more material from Asia as Middle East deliveries decline.

Nickel again tested resistance near $19,520/t, closing at the top of the range. The move is supported by growing supply-side pressure, with Huayou announcing output cuts at its Indonesian HPAL operations due to surging sulphur costs, highlighting tightening processing economics. The close at resistance suggests upward pressure is building, although confirmation through a sustained break higher is still needed.

Precious metals and oil

Precious metals moved lower, with gold testing $4,550/oz and silver failing to hold above $74/oz. The move reflects the continued dominance of the macro environment, with higher yields and a firm dollar limiting upside.

Oil moved higher, with Brent above $111/bbl and WTI around $100/bbl, as disruption persists and around 10mb/d of flows remain impacted. The dollar index held above 98.6, while the US 10-year yield moved higher above 4.35%, reflecting the continued influence of energy-driven inflation on rates.

All price data is from 28.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields