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Daily Base Metals Report

AI Earnings Fade as Energy Risk Regains Control

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Authors
Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Mega cap earnings confirmed AI strength but failed to offset softer growth and firmer energy inflation
  • Base metals remain heavy despite softer dollar.
  • Precious metals rebound with yields, but oil stays priced for duration as Hormuz risk persists

 

Macro

US equities opened mixed, digesting a heavy flow of data. Big Tech earnings reassured on growth, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon all posting strong revenue prints supported by ongoing AI demand. Price action, though, was mixed. Alphabet outperformed as cloud revenues surprised to the upside, while Meta sold off after signalling heavier AI driven capex, reopening concerns around cost discipline. Focus now shifts to Apple, which reports after today’s close.

The dollar reversed course sharply, slipping from above 99.0 to below 98.4 on DXY, while the US 10 year yield eased back under 4.4%.

Geopolitical risk remains firmly embedded. The standoff between the US and Iran continues to centre on the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic volumes remain constrained despite intermittent signals around potential reopening. Washington’s naval posture and Tehran’s demands for control over transit rights have left oil markets pricing persistence, keeping the energy complex structurally bid. 

Base metals

Despite the softer dollar and lower yields, base metals struggled to find momentum. Copper fluctuated through the session and finished near the bottom of its recent range, finding it difficult to establish a foothold above $13,000/t.

Aluminium slipped below $3,500/t, now back at levels last seen at the outset of the conflict. The cash to three month backwardation narrowed slightly but remains above $50/t, pointing to ongoing nearby tightness even as macro pressure continues to dictate price direction.

Nickel rebounded from sub $19,200/t levels seen on Wednesday, edging back toward $19,400/t, but the move lacked follow through. The market continues to struggle to sustain higher ground. If the dollar rebounces, the metal is likely to drop back to the lower end of the range.

Precious metals and oil

Gold and silver recovered alongside the pullback in yields and the dollar. Gold moved back above $4,600/oz, while silver reclaimed the $73/oz level, reflecting a modest improvement in real rate support.

Oil prices eased on the day but remain elevated in level terms. Brent is holding near $114/bbl and WTI around $104/bbl, with price action still anchored by constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz and an absence of clear de escalation signals.

All price data is from 30.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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