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Daily Base Metals Report

Strong Payrolls Reset the Rate Narrative

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Strong payrolls pushed the dollar close to 100.0 and lifted the US 10-year yield back above 4.5%, reviving the higher-for-longer rates view.
  • Base metals sold off, with copper near $13,520/t.
  • Precious metals stayed under pressure, with higher yields and a firmer dollar continuing to cap gold and silver.

Macro

US equities lost momentum on Friday as a stronger-than-expected payrolls report pushed the market back towards a higher-for-longer rates view, while semiconductors remained under pressure after this week’s earnings disappointments. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, well above the 85,000 consensus, which was enough to revive hawkish Fed pricing and knock some of the shine off the recent record-high rally. 

The dollar surged back towards 100.0 and the US 10-year yield moved above 4.5%, reinforcing the message that markets still see little room for policy easing while labour demand remains firm. Oil eased, with Brent falling towards $94-95/bbl and WTI towards $91-92/bbl, but that move reflected operational reassurance out of Oman more than any genuine resolution in the Middle East. 

Base Metals

Base metals turned lower once the dollar and yields moved higher.

Copper dropped back towards $13,520/t, aluminium fell below $3,600/t, and zinc softened to around $3,530/t, reflecting a broader macro-led pullback across the complex. Reuters reported the same pattern in LME trade, with copper under pressure from fading peace hopes and renewed inflation concerns, while aluminium, zinc and lead also moved lower. 

We still see copper as better supported than the rest of the complex because tariff-related distortion and tighter visible inventory outside the US remain supportive, but today’s move showed that macro can still dominate in the short term. We expect rallies across base metals to remain vulnerable while the dollar stays firm and the market keeps pricing restrictive policy. 

Precious Metals 

Precious metals also came under pressure. Gold fell as stronger payrolls pushed yields higher and increased the cost of carry, while silver underperformed again as the stronger dollar and firmer rates cut through the complex. Gold fell towards $4,400/oz and silver came down to around $70.9/oz after the payrolls release reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. 

We expect precious metals to stay defensive unless yields retreat again. Gold still needs a clearer move lower in rates to stabilise, while silver remains the more volatile leg of the complex and is likely to stay more exposed to sharp reversals while the dollar remains firm.

All price data is from 05.06.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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