1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report
Daily Base Metals Report

Risk Premium Creeps Back

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Summary

  • DXY held above 100.8 while Brent moved back above $80/bbl and WTI above $77/bbl as the US-Iran relief story became less straightforward.
  • Base metals lost momentum again, with copper back below $13,700/t and zinc failing to hold its recent breakout.
  • Precious metals stayed under pressure, with gold around $4,146/oz and silver near $64.4/oz, as silver continued to lead the downside.

Macro

US markets were closed for Juneteenth National Independence Day, leaving macro price action to run mainly through FX, rates and oil. The dollar held firm above 100.8, staying near one-year highs after this week’s hawkish Fed turn kept tighter policy expectations alive, with markets now pricing roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp hike in September. 

Oil moved higher again, with Brent above $80/bbl and WTI above $77/bbl, as the US-Iran accord looks less straightforward in implementation than the initial market reaction implied. Follow-up talks in Switzerland were postponed, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained uneven, and Iran introduced new transit procedures, all of which slowed the physical relief story and put some risk premium back into crude.

Base Metals

Base metals complex lost momentum again into the end of the week. 

Copper traded down to around $13,595/t and remains under pressure after slipping back below the $13,700/t area, which leaves the recent recovery looking increasingly fragile. 

Aluminium was steadier at around $3,396/t, but it still looks stuck in a low, narrow range after the earlier washout and is not yet showing enough strength to suggest it can move away from the $3,400/t area with conviction. 

Zinc also turned lower, falling back to around $3,560/t after failing to hold the recent break above $3,620, which weakens the short-term tone and suggests the breakout has lost traction for now.

Overall, the price action point to a heavier and more defensive complex, with copper, nickel and tin all under pressure, zinc reversing its breakout, and aluminium the only market that looks more stable than strong.

Precious Metals 

Precious metals remained under pressure after Wednesday’s Fed shock. 

Gold traded down to around $4,146/oz and continued to drift lower through today after failing to recover back above the low-$4,200s. The broader move suggests that the market has not yet found a convincing base, with the rebound attempts staying limited and the tone still defensive.

Silver looked weaker again, trading down to around $64.4/oz and extending the sharp decline seen since Wednesday evening. The chart shows that each bounce has been sold into, and the failure to rebuild above the mid-$60s leaves the market looking fragile. 

Overall, gold is still holding up better than silver, but both metals remain under pressure, with silver continuing to lead the downside and the price action still offering little sign of a more durable recovery.

All price data is from 19.06.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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