Summary
- US stocks opened higher as oil softened and tech strength supported risk appetite.
- Base metals recovered from yesterday’s technically driven sell-off, as positions normalised.
- Oil gave back part of its geopolitical premium, while gold and silver rebounded as dip-buying returned.
Macro
US equities opened higher today, supported by steadier oil prices and renewed strength in tech stocks. Although attacks in the Middle East continued for a second day, investors appeared more focused on macro developments and corporate earnings, with geopolitical risk having a more muted impact on broader risk sentiment.
The dollar index softened back below 101 as the 10-year US Treasury yield eased to 4.55%. Markets have edged towards a more hawkish Fed interpretation in response to the geopolitical backdrop, but the move has not been large enough to suggest a meaningful repricing. This again points to investors treating the latest escalation as a risk to monitor rather than a catalyst for a broader macro reset.
Base Metals
Base metals recovered today, retracing part of yesterday's technically driven losses. A softer dollar helped the move, but the rally lacked the strength of a broad macro-led rebound, suggesting price action was driven more by position normalisation than renewed bullish conviction.
Copper recovered towards $13,500/t, reinforcing our view that the market remains comfortable within the recent $13,100-13,500/t range. Yesterday's decline appears to have been treated as an overshoot, prompting mean reversion and selective dip-buying rather than fresh trend-following interest. Volumes were healthier but not exceptional, pointing to selling pressure easing rather than aggressive new longs entering the market.
This suggests recent macro relationships are becoming less pronounced. Copper did not respond proportionally to the weaker dollar or softer oil prices, with technical positioning and market structure again having greater influence on intraday price discovery. Until a clearer catalyst emerges, particularly around US copper tariffs, we expect the metal to remain range bound.
Aluminium also extended its recovery towards $3,180/t despite softer oil, suggesting the market is no longer trading solely on the geopolitical risk premium that dominated earlier in the conflict. Recent gains look more consistent with a gradual rebuilding of positions after the sharp liquidation, as aluminium reverts to its own technical and structural drivers.
The rest of the complex followed suit, with nickel and zinc rising to $16,510/t and $3,615/t, respectively. Broader participation suggests investor appetite for base metals remains intact despite recent volatility, although conviction is still lacking for a decisive break higher.
Precious Metals
Oil prices softened as markets unwound part of the geopolitical premium, even as risks in the Middle East remained unresolved. The move suggests some fatigue around conflict-led pricing, with traders still weighing the potential implications for supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz but no longer adding risk premium as aggressively.
Gold and silver strengthened to $4,120/oz and $60/oz respectively, recouping yesterday's losses as investors rebuilt exposure after the immediate catalyst faded. The rebound reinforces our view that precious metals are moving into a more range-bound phase, where dips continue to attract buying interest.
All price data is from 09.07.2026 as of 17:30