Summary
- Oil price volatility and hawkish Fed messaging boosted the dollar and US yields.
- Copper led a pullback from resistance, with thinning liquidity and limited conviction keeping the complex sensitive to technical levels and positioning.
- Gold and silver weakened on firmer oil prices and rising yields.
Macro
US stocks opened lower as oil price volatility shaped risk sentiment across markets. WTI gapped lower overnight before regaining momentum to trade at $91.80/bbl at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the Fed’s hawkish hold and subsequent comments from policymakers continued to support the dollar, which strengthened towards 101. In particular, Governor Barr joined other speakers in arguing that further tightening may be needed to return inflation to target. Markets reflected this view by pricing in 37bps of additional tightening by year-end. The move was visible across the Treasury curve, with the 10-year yield breaking above the critical 5.00% threshold to reach 5.07%. We remain sceptical that a second hike will be delivered this year, given the already-restrictive level of interest rates and the limited ability of further tightening to bring inflation back to target while the conflict remains in place. Nevertheless, firm policymaker rhetoric continues to support both the dollar and Treasury yields.
September PMIs pointed to improving resilience in the US, with the composite index rising to 58.4, its highest level since July 2021. This contrasted with the UK, where weaker-than-expected activity weighed on domestic assets.
Base Metals
Today’s tone was weaker across the base metals complex, with copper leading a move lower after testing above the $14,800/t resistance level. The failure to hold above this area prompted some profit-taking, as participants appear increasingly hesitant to extend fresh longs at current valuations. However, the decline remained contained and volumes were subdued, suggesting that selling pressure lacks strong conviction for now.
With the upcoming Chinese holidays also likely to reduce market participation, liquidity should thin further, particularly during overnight trading hours. This leaves the complex vulnerable to sharper short-term moves on relatively modest flows, even if underlying directional conviction remains limited. For us, this creates a difficult near-term environment: resistance is capping upside momentum, but the lack of aggressive selling and still-supportive fundamentals are preventing a cleaner downside trend. Price action is therefore likely to remain choppy and increasingly sensitive to technical levels and positioning as liquidity deteriorates.
The rest of the complex followed suit. Nickel failed to hold yesterday’s high of $16,640/t and fell to $16,480/t. Aluminium was initially softer but subsequently recovered, ending the session in line with the opening level at $3,253/t. Zinc also tested the $3,900/t level but failed to establish a sustained break, settling back at $3,902/t.
Precious Metals
Precious metals moved lower today as firmer oil prices and rising yields weighed on the complex, with gold and silver falling to $4,280/oz and $64/oz, respectively.
All price data is from 23.09.2026 as of 17:30