Summary
- Elevated US yields and a firmer dollar constrained equities ahead of key inflation and employment data.
- Base metals weakened despite stronger speculative positioning, with technical signals pointing to fading selling pressure but no confirmed reversal.
- Gold and silver recovered from Monday’s losses, although neither metal established convincing upward momentum.
Macro
US equities opened on a muted footing as elevated Treasury yields continued to constrain risk appetite and equity valuations. The US 10-year yield remained above 5.26%, while DXY strengthened beyond 101.4. September consumer confidence also fell more sharply than expected, reinforcing uncertainty over the resilience of household spending.
Tomorrow’s focus will be on US ADP employment, personal income and spending, PCE inflation and the final second-quarter GDP estimate. We expect the data to remain sufficiently firm to keep Treasury yields and the dollar elevated, maintaining pressure on equities as markets continue to reassess the outlook for US interest rates.
In the UK, Andy Burnham announced at the Labour Party Conference that the state pension triple lock would end in 2030 and be replaced by a double lock linked to inflation or a minimum increase of 2.5%. The projected savings would help fund a National Care Service, while the government also outlined plans for a publicly owned “Great British Grid”, closer EU ties and further housing and leasehold reforms.
The pension reform could have important implications for public spending and household incomes, but its economic and fiscal impact will depend on the detailed costings and implementation framework. Tomorrow’s final UK second-quarter GDP estimate and current-account figures will provide the next domestic focus, although we expect US data and movements in global yields to remain the principal drivers of sterling and broader risk sentiment.
Base Metals
Base metals traded mostly lower, with aluminium falling to $3,214/t, lead weakening to $1,893.50/t and nickel declining to $15,955/t. Copper stabilised at $14,425/t after its recent fall, while zinc was broadly unchanged at $3,852/t. Tin outperformed, increasing to $54,075/t after briefly testing above $54,400/t.
The latest LME positioning data showed speculators adding 447 lots to their net-long copper position, taking it to 42,578 lots, although this was driven primarily by a 73-lot reduction in short positions. Zinc’s speculative net long rose by 3,118 lots to 33,064, its highest level in more than four weeks, supported by a sizeable increase in outright longs. The stronger positioning contrasts with today’s subdued price action, suggesting that bullish exposure has yet to translate into renewed upward momentum.
Technically, copper, lead and zinc are showing signs that the recent selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion across several short-term timeframes. However, the signals do not yet confirm a reversal, while zinc’s bear-flag structure remains intact. We see scope for a broader recovery if the trend indicators begin to turn, but confirmation remains necessary, particularly as nickel and aluminium closed close to their session lows and zinc remains below $3,900/t.
Precious Metals
Gold recovered to $4,154/oz, while silver increased to $60.87/oz after both metals suffered sharp losses on Monday. However, the rebound lost momentum into the close, with gold struggling to extend above $4,170/oz and silver retreating from an intraday test of $61.30/oz.
Gold’s rebound remained tentative as prices struggled to extend higher, while silver showed signs that the recent selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion across shorter-term timeframes. We expect prices to consolidate near current levels, with a stronger recovery dependent on the trend indicators beginning to turn.
All price data is from 29.09.2026 as of 17:30