Summary
Oil above $104/bbl, firm employment and a restrictive Fed outlook kept equities under pressure and the dollar supported.
China’s reopening failed to sustain base-metal gains, with copper reversing towards $14,300/t and tin leading the sell-off.
Gold held near $4,100/oz, while silver broke below $59/oz as high yields and industrial weakness constrained demand.
Macro
US equities fell after Thursday’s open as the renewed oil rally and a still-hawkish rates outlook outweighed support from Wednesday’s strong 10-year Treasury auction. Initial jobless claims declined to 197k, signalling that labour-market conditions remain comparatively firm despite September’s weak payrolls. The 10-year yield fluctuated around 5.30%, while the DXY held above 102.2 as markets continued to favour a Fed pause in October followed by another increase in December.
Oil was the main source of pressure. Brent surged above $104/bbl and WTI reached $92/bbl as attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz intensified, while a hurricane forced US Gulf producers to shut around a quarter of offshore oil output. US inventories also fell by 3.2m barrels, adding to the immediate supply concerns. Plans to accelerate strategic stock releases provided limited reassurance because the additional barrels appear to form part of previously announced measures rather than new supply.
We see the combination of firm employment, higher oil and persistent term-premium pressure keeping US yields and the dollar supported. We expect equities to remain vulnerable while Brent stays above $100/bbl, as elevated energy costs reinforce inflation risks and reduce the scope for a more dovish Fed response.
Base Metals
Base metals initially rose as Chinese participants returned from Golden Week, but the gains proved short-lived. The reversal suggests that post-holiday physical demand fell below expectations, prompting broad profit-taking after the recent rally.
Copper briefly traded above $14,600/t after an official strike began at Chile’s Centinela mine, which accounts for around 4.4% of national output. However, prices subsequently fell towards $14,300/t after Antofagasta maintained its production guidance, indicating that the market does not yet expect a prolonged disruption. Separate strike risk at Escondida continues to offer some supply support.
Tin led the decline, falling to $51,395/t as both Shanghai and LME contracts sold off sharply following the reopening. No specific fundamental catalyst has been confirmed, pointing instead to aggressive post-holiday position unwinding in a relatively illiquid market. Lead also reversed its early advance, suggesting limited urgency among Chinese consumers to rebuild stocks. We see the broad sell-off as a weak initial demand signal from China, with stronger physical buying needed to stabilise the complex.
Precious Metals
Precious metals remained under pressure on Thursday. Gold rose towards $4,140/oz during the European session but failed to hold the recovery, falling back to around $4,110/oz. Silver underperformed, dropping below $59/oz to $58.5/oz as the wider metals sell-off added to pressure from elevated yields.
Oil’s rebound above $104/bbl provided little inflation-hedging support. Instead, markets focused on the risk that higher energy costs could keep the Fed restrictive for longer, with a December rate increase still largely priced in. Gold remains caught between geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty on one side and the opportunity cost of high real yields on the other.
We see gold consolidating around the $4,100/oz support area, with a recovery above $4,140/oz needed to improve the near-term outlook. Silver’s break below $59/oz is more concerning and reflects its greater sensitivity to the weakness in industrial metals. A recovery above $60/oz would be needed to ease the immediate downside pressure.
All price data is from 08.10.2026 as of 17:30