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Daily Base Metals Report

Hot CPI Sends Metals Lower

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • CPI accelerated to 3.7% YoY, lifting Fed hike bets and keeping DXY above 102.80 despite yields easing from 5.30%.

  • Aluminium broke below $3,000/t and copper fell to $14,490/t as dollar strength outweighed lingering Chilean supply risks.

  • Gold dropped towards $4,080/oz, while silver tumbled 5.8% to a late-July low near $55.74/oz.

Macro

US equities opened lower after September CPI accelerated to 3.7% YoY, above the 3.6% forecast, while core inflation also exceeded expectations at 2.6%. Energy drove much of the increase, but firmer shelter and broader core pressures reinforced expectations of restrictive Fed policy.

Forward swaps increased bets on another hike this year, briefly pushing the US 10-year yield above 5.30% before it returned towards 5.20%. DXY held above 102.80, indicating that the underlying policy repricing remained intact despite the recovery in Treasuries. With PPI and retail sales due on Thursday, persistent inflation should keep the dollar supported and leave equities, particularly rate-sensitive technology shares, and metals vulnerable.

Base Metals

Base metals weakened sharply as the CPI-driven rise in the dollar revived Fed tightening expectations. Aluminium fell towards $2,985/t, breaking below $3,000/t, while zinc declined to $3,715/t. Nickel recovered from below $15,500/t to $15,575/t, while lead surrendered earlier gains to fall below $1,900/t.

Copper dropped from nearly $14,700/t to $14,490/t. A preliminary agreement at BHP’s Escondida removed some immediate supply risk, although union approval was still required and rejection would permit a strike from 15 October. The separate strike at Antofagasta Minerals’ Centinela remains unresolved: 709 workers have been out since 7 October, with unions reporting that mine-truck activity has halved, while the company has maintained guidance and noted that the unions represent around 22% of its direct workforce.

Tin remained the weakest performer, falling to $50,140/t from above $53,000/t at the start of the week. We expect the firm dollar and renewed rate pressure to keep the complex defensive, with copper’s remaining supply risks offering only very limited support.

Precious Metals 

Gold fell almost 2% to around $4,080/oz, breaking below $4,150/oz as stronger inflation lifted Fed tightening expectations.

Silver underperformed, falling 5.8% to $55.74/oz, its lowest level since late July, as the break below $58/oz accelerated selling amid dollar strength and weaker industrial sentiment. With DXY holding above 102.80, precious metals are likely to remain under pressure.

All price data is from 14.10.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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