Summary
Surging PPI kept technology shares under pressure, while defensive rotation supported the Dow and Treasury demand pulled the 10-year yield towards 5.0%.
Copper tested $14,300/t despite tight spreads and the unresolved Centinela strike, while aluminium remained below $3,000/t.
Gold recovered towards $4,145/oz as yields eased, but silver lagged near $56.90/oz amid weaker industrial sentiment.
Macro
US equities diverged at the open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling as the continued sell-off in AI and semiconductor shares outweighed stronger areas of the market. The Dow moved higher as investors rotated towards healthcare, consumer staples and other value-oriented blue chips, which are less exposed to concerns that elevated borrowing costs could slow AI-related investment.
September PPI delivered a broad upside surprise. Headline producer prices rose 6.3% YoY, its highest since December 2022. Core PPI increased 5.0% YoY. Energy remained the main driver: final-demand energy prices jumped 10.8% and gasoline rose 20.3%, but services also increased 0.8%, indicating that cost pressures extended beyond fuel.
Despite the inflation surprise, the US 10-year yield fell towards 5.0% as weakness in equities and geopolitical uncertainty encouraged demand for Treasuries, reversing part of Wednesday’s post-CPI sell-off. DXY remained contained around 102.0-102.2 as the decline in yields offset the support from firmer Fed expectations.
Broadening producer-price pressures should keep the Fed cautious and policy restrictive. We expect the resulting pressure on margins and financing costs to keep technology shares vulnerable, even if safe-haven demand limits a renewed rise in Treasury yields.
Base Metals
Base metals softened during Asian trading and struggled to sustain a later rebound. Aluminium performed best, edging higher but remaining below $3,000/t. Nickel recovered from $15,100/t to around $15,300/t, while lead failed to hold $1,885/t and zinc closed near $3,670/t. Copper tested $14,300/t as the stronger dollar and restrictive rate outlook continued to outweigh supply concerns.
The supervisors’ union at BHP’s Escondida mine approved a new three-year contract with 64% support, cancelling the planned strike and removing an immediate risk to supply from the world’s largest copper mine. However, the separate strike at Antofagasta Minerals’ Centinela mine remains unresolved, preserving some support for copper.
Physical tightness also remains visible in nearby spreads, with copper’s cash-to-three-month backwardation around $120/t, compared with approximately $33/t for zinc and $35/t for tin. We expect the firm dollar to keep outright prices defensive, although tight prompt structure and the unresolved Centinela strike should limit the downside in copper.
Precious Metals
Gold recovered towards $4,145/oz, reversing part of Wednesday’s post-CPI decline as Treasury yields fell and the dollar eased towards 102.0-102.2. The rebound suggests that safe-haven demand has returned at lower levels, although elevated producer inflation and expectations of restrictive Fed policy continue to cap the upside.
Silver recovered more cautiously towards $56.90/oz following Wednesday’s sharper sell-off. Its weaker rebound reflects greater exposure to subdued industrial sentiment and continued pressure across base metals. Gold is likely to remain supported above $4,100/oz as long as yields stay close to 5.0%, while silver may struggle to recover more decisively without an improvement in broader metals sentiment.
All price data is from 15.10.2026 as of 17:30