1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report
Daily Base Metals Report

Nickel Takes the Lead in a Cautious Market

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Summary

  • Weak housing data leaves the Fed outlook unchanged.

  • Nickel surges above $16,000/t; copper remains under pressure.

  • Gold holds above $4,100/oz but struggles at $4,150/oz.

Macro

Markets lacked direction as weak housing data collided with an unchanged Fed outlook. US housing starts fell to 1.221m, missing the 1.300m forecast, while permits remained broadly stable at 1.400m, showing that elevated financing costs continue to restrict construction.

US equities opened flat, DXY held near 101.8 and the 10-year yield remained around 5.10%. The data did little to alter expectations of an October hold and a possible December hike, leaving earnings, jobless claims and Friday’s flash PMIs as the next catalysts.

Base Metals

Nickel was the standout today, surging through $16,000/t to $16,215/t after trading near $15,300/t last week. The move looked largely like a rebound from oversold levels, with the wider market still expected to remain in surplus this year.

Copper had a weaker session, slipping to $14,354.50/t. The metal recovered from an earlier test of $14,300/t, but rising exchange stocks and limited Chinese buying at current prices kept the rebound contained. Aluminium held above $3,000/t, while lead and zinc also moved higher, testing $1,910/t and $3,760/t, respectively.

Precious Metals 

Gold held around $4,127/oz, with the softer dollar providing some support but the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% continuing to make a move through $4,150/oz difficult. Silver was weaker around $57.43/oz, underperforming gold as industrial sentiment remained subdued.

Markets still expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged next week, while keeping a December hike in play. That has given gold some breathing room above $4,100/oz, but with the 10-year yield still around 5.1%, there is little support for a sustained move higher. For now, $4,150/oz remains the key near-term hurdle.

All price data is from 21.10.2026 as of 17:30

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