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Daily Base Metals Report

Nickel Takes the Lead in a Cautious Market

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Weak housing data leaves the Fed outlook unchanged.

  • Nickel surges above $16,000/t; copper remains under pressure.

  • Gold holds above $4,100/oz but struggles at $4,150/oz.

Macro

Markets lacked direction as weak housing data collided with an unchanged Fed outlook. US housing starts fell to 1.221m, missing the 1.300m forecast, while permits remained broadly stable at 1.400m, showing that elevated financing costs continue to restrict construction.

US equities opened flat, DXY held near 101.8 and the 10-year yield remained around 5.10%. The data did little to alter expectations of an October hold and a possible December hike, leaving earnings, jobless claims and Friday’s flash PMIs as the next catalysts.

Base Metals

Nickel was the standout today, surging through $16,000/t to $16,215/t after trading near $15,300/t last week. The move looked largely like a rebound from oversold levels, with the wider market still expected to remain in surplus this year.

Copper had a weaker session, slipping to $14,354.50/t. The metal recovered from an earlier test of $14,300/t, but rising exchange stocks and limited Chinese buying at current prices kept the rebound contained. Aluminium held above $3,000/t, while lead and zinc also moved higher, testing $1,910/t and $3,760/t, respectively.

Precious Metals 

Gold held around $4,127/oz, with the softer dollar providing some support but the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% continuing to make a move through $4,150/oz difficult. Silver was weaker around $57.43/oz, underperforming gold as industrial sentiment remained subdued.

Markets still expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged next week, while keeping a December hike in play. That has given gold some breathing room above $4,100/oz, but with the 10-year yield still around 5.1%, there is little support for a sustained move higher. For now, $4,150/oz remains the key near-term hurdle.

All price data is from 21.10.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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We execute and clear a significant proportion of the market activity on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metals exchange. We also provide access to the CME’s base metal futures and options contracts on its COMEX exchange, nickel contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and copper contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).

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