Summary
Equities advanced and DXY reached 102.3 as markets positioned for a Fed hold with a continued tightening bias.
Aluminium approached $3,100/t, while copper tested $14,500/t as backwardations pointed to tight prompt supply.
Gold recovered to $4,060/oz and silver to $54.48/oz, although both remain constrained by December hike expectations.
Macro
US equities moved higher in early trading, following a recovery across European markets as investors positioned for earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. The dollar index strengthened to 102.3 as the euro weakened and markets retained expectations of another Fed increase in December, while the US 10-year yield remained below 5.0%.
The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75-4.00%, with the statement and press conference carrying more weight than the decision itself. September inflation of 3.7% supports further tightening, but weaker payroll growth gives policymakers room to wait. We expect the Fed to maintain its tightening bias and keep a December increase in play, leaving the dollar supported.
Base Metals
Base metals moved higher across the board. Aluminium surged towards $3,100/t and closed near a two-week high around $3,090/t. Zinc reached $3,840/t and lead approached $1,930/t, both their highest levels this month. The moves were consistent with tightening nearby availability, with zinc’s cash-to-three-month backwardation widening to around $118/t.
Copper advanced towards $14,500/t but stopped at $14,490.50/t. Buyers remained in control, but declining volume near $14,500/t points to some hesitation at the level and does not yet confirm a breakout.
The cash-to-three-month spread widened towards $200/t, its highest since August. Tin was also deeply backwardated at around $115/t. The widening spreads across copper, zinc and tin show that the rally is also being reinforced by demand for immediately available metal. The next test is whether outright prices can retain today’s gains once the Fed decision shifts attention back towards the dollar and financing costs.
Precious Metals
Gold recovered strongly from an early test below $4,000/oz, breaking through $4,020/oz and $4,040/oz before reaching $4,060/oz. The sharpest part of the advance came during US trading, even as DXY strengthened, suggesting that positioning ahead of the Fed outweighed the usual dollar headwind.
Silver followed gold higher after briefly falling below $53.00/oz, recovering to around $54.48/oz. However, silver remains the weaker of the two metals after its deeper October correction, with the gold-silver ratio now close to 75 compared with around 69 earlier this month.
Today’s rebound returned gold above $4,050/oz, but silver remained below $55.00/oz. With an October hold already heavily priced, Wednesday’s focus will be on whether the Fed preserves expectations of a December hike, which has been the principal constraint on both metals throughout the recent correction.
All price data is from 27.10.2026 as of 17:30