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Daily Base Metals Report

Lower Oil Sparks a Broad Metals Rebound

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Equities advanced as softer oil, yields and DXY eased inflation pressure ahead of the US midterms.

  • Copper recovered above $14,300/t and aluminium approached $3,100/t as backwardations continue to signal tight prompt supply.

  • Gold rebounded towards $3,970/oz and silver reclaimed $50/oz after October’s heavy liquidation.

Macro

US equities opened higher, recovering part of Friday’s technology-led sell-off as lower oil prices reduced immediate inflation concerns. Reports of renewed US–Iran diplomatic efforts pushed WTI towards $96/bbl and Brent towards $105/bbl, reversing part of last week’s geopolitical premium. The US 10-year yield fell below 4.9%, while DXY softened towards 101.7 as investors reduced dollar positions ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.

This week’s focus is on the US midterms, Thursday’s Bank of England decision and Friday’s payrolls report, alongside ISM data and earnings from Apple, AMD and other technology companies. We expect the election result to drive the initial move in the dollar and Treasuries, while Friday’s labour data will determine whether expectations of another Fed hike in December remain intact.

Base Metals

Base metals recovered strongly from Friday’s decline. Copper rose to $14,340/t after holding above $14,100/t, while aluminium climbed to $3,089/t and approached $3,100/t late in the session. Nickel recovered to $15,565/t, zinc reached $3,895/t and tin rebounded to $49,650/t. Lead lagged the wider recovery, closing slightly lower at $1,905/t.

The spreads remain the stronger part of the picture. Aluminium’s cash-to-three-month backwardation widened towards $40/t, copper remained close to $150/t and zinc stayed above $70/t. The structures show that prompt availability remains tight even after October’s correction in outright prices. Copper and aluminium’s ability to hold today’s gains will now depend on whether the softer dollar and lower oil prices persist after the midterm elections.

Precious Metals

Gold recovered sharply from Friday’s fall, rising to around $3,970/oz after holding near $3,900/oz during the first half of the session. Silver rebounded more strongly close to $51/oz, reclaiming $50/oz after opening near its lowest level since November 2025. Lower Treasury yields, a softer dollar and the pullback in oil helped both metals recover from October’s liquidation.

The rebound still leaves gold below $4,000/oz and silver well below the levels seen before last week’s sell-off. We expect Friday’s payrolls report to provide the clearer test, as the strength of employment and wage growth will shape expectations for a December Fed hike.

All price data is from 02.11.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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