Iron Ore & Steel Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert iron ore and steel market insights

Our quarterly iron ore and steel outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the iron ore and steel futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce iron ore and steel price range forecasts as part of the report.

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Iron Ore & Steel Outlook – Q3 2024

In Q2 2024, iron ore prices remain muted, reflecting weak confidence in China's construction sector despite government efforts to boost housing demand. The Third Plenum in July did not announce significant fiscal changes, maintaining low confidence in construction sector revival. Iron ore imports fell 4.3% MoM in June, and stainless steel demand remained weak. Despite short-term fluctuations, we expect iron ore prices to stay subdued in Q3 2024.

Metals

As we head into Q3 2024, the markets are dealing with a different reality than what was initially expected at the beginning of the year. With Biden stepping out of the US Presidential Race, all eyes are likely to stay focused on the US until November. Additionally, there is a growing case for an increasing number of interest rate cuts this year, with major banks expected to start the cutting cycle by the end of this quarter. While this should help alleviate some of the pressures felt by the commodity space, China's muted economic performance is weighing on the base metals’ narrative. From September onward, we expect macroeconomic factors to relieve some of the pressures on the commodity market, leading to a modest increase in the latter part of Q3. We expect Q4 to bring greater market volatility.

Q3 2024