NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged higher, settling at 13.87 and holding above the 10 DMA at 13.67 after rejecting recent lows. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging to the upside, and the MACD diff has turned marginally positive, signalling improving upside momentum. However, futures remain below the 40 and 100 DMA at 14.22 and 14.49, keeping the broader trend tilted lower despite near-term recovery signals.
A close above resistance at 14.28 would strengthen the case for a corrective advance towards 15.62, while failure to sustain gains above the 10 DMA would expose prices back towards recent lows near the 13.00 region. Recent candles show firm buying interest off the lows, suggesting selling pressure is easing, but confirmation through resistance breaks is required to validate a stronger directional shift.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures firmed into the end of the week, with prices closing at 403.70, marginally above the 10 DMA at 403.07 after rebounding from the recent 393.80 low. The stochastics are rising, with %K crossing above %D and lifting out of lower territory, while the MACD diff remains negative but is flattening, suggesting downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. Price action reclaiming the 10 DMA signals early stabilisation, but futures still trade below the 40 and 100 DMA at 416.28 and 422.01, respectively, which continue to cap broader trend direction.
To confirm a recovery structure, futures need to close above resistance at 411.60 and then challenge the 40 DMA. Failure to hold above the 10 DMA would refocus attention on support at 393.80. The indicators point to a tentative stabilisation phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged higher on Friday as modest buying interest saw prices close at 285.70. The stochastics are rising from low levels, with %K/%D turning higher out of the oversold region, suggesting early signs of stabilisation. The MACD diff remains negative but is flattening, signalling that downside momentum is losing intensity rather than accelerating.
To confirm a shift towards higher prices, futures need to reclaim resistance at 290.18 (10 DMA), which could open the way for a test of 314.75 ahead of the 40 DMA at 322.12. On the downside, failure to hold above the recent lows could see prices retest the 280 region, with a break below exposing 260.
The small-bodied candle reflects hesitation after recent declines, indicating that markets are attempting to base. While indicators hint at stabilisation, futures must break above near-term resistance to confirm a recovery bias.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures edged lower on Friday as light selling pressure pushed prices to a close at 3591. The %K/%D is falling, with %K positioned below %D, signalling lingering downside pressure. The MACD diff remains negative and broadly stable, suggesting bearish momentum persists but is not intensifying.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below support at 3500, which could trigger a move towards 3300 and potentially 3000. On the upside, markets need to reclaim the 10 DMA at 3702, followed by resistance at the 40 DMA at 3893, to signal that buying appetite is returning.
Recent candles show limited real bodies, reflecting indecision after the recent decline and indicating that sellers are losing urgency but still retain control. The indicators point to continued weakness in the near term unless prices recover above the short-term DMAs.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures extended losses on Friday as strong selling pressure drove prices lower to close at 3058. Futures continue to trade below the 10 DMA at 3775, the 40 DMA at 4855, and the 200 DMA at 6918, confirming that downside momentum remains firmly intact across all time horizons. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D deep in oversold territory, while the MACD diff is negative and diverging, signalling accelerating selling pressure rather than stabilisation.
To confirm continuation of the bearish trend, futures need to take out support at 3050 and then target 3000, which could open the path towards the next structural support at 2800. On the upside, futures would need to reclaim the 10 DMA at 3775 before testing resistance at 4296 in order to signal a meaningful stabilisation.
Recent candles show persistent lower closes with limited upper wicks, indicating continued seller dominance. We expect futures to remain under pressure in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures weakened sharply on Friday as sustained selling saw prices settle at 2146 after briefly testing fresh lows. Futures are trading decisively below the 10 DMA at 2625, the 40 DMA at 3400, and the 200 DMA at 4814, reinforcing the entrenched bearish structure. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D positioned deep in oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, highlighting strengthening downside momentum rather than exhaustion.
To confirm continuation of the bearish outlook, futures need to break below support at 2130 and then target 2000. Conversely, a recovery above the 10 DMA at 2625 would be required to signal easing downside pressure and could allow a test of resistance at 3000.
Consecutive bearish candles and a steady sequence of lower highs underline the persistence of selling interest. We expect futures to remain weak in the near term.
