NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures traded in a volatile range on Thursday but settled marginally lower at 14.73, down just 0.02 on the session. The wide intraday candle reflects continued uncertainty, with prices swinging but ultimately closing near the previous day's level. Futures are trading below the 10 DMA at 14.84 but remain just above the 40 DMA at 14.70 and above the 100 DMA at 14.55, suggesting that the broader structure is holding but near‑term momentum remains capped.
The stochastics are turning higher from lower levels, with %K at 32.85 above %D at 29.97, indicating that downside momentum may be easing. However, the MACD diff is negative at -0.07 and widening, suggesting that underlying weakness persists despite the stabilisation in price.
To confirm a recovery, futures need to close above the 10 DMA at 14.84 and then push through 15.00 to re‑establish upside momentum. On the downside, a break below the 40 DMA at 14.70 would signal deterioration and expose the 100 DMA at 14.55, with a move below 14.30 bringing the April low at 13.34 back into focus. For now, the volatile but flat session reflects a market struggling for direction between near‑term resistance and medium‑term support.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures edged higher on Thursday, closing at 442.70, up 3.20 on the session as prices continued to hold above all key moving averages. Futures are trading above the 10 DMA at 438.00, the 40 DMA at 432.35 and the 100 DMA at 425.73, confirming that the broader recovery from the 393.80 low remains intact and the near‑term tone is constructive.
The stochastics are rising, with %K at 62.56 above %D at 51.75, indicating improving upside momentum. The MACD diff is marginally negative at -0.08, suggesting that the market is in a transitional phase rather than building clear directional momentum in either direction.
To confirm further upside, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA and push through resistance around 445–450, which would open the way towards the mid‑450s and potentially a retest of the March highs. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA at 438.00 would signal fading momentum, with the 40 DMA at 432.35 as the next support. For now, the constructive close above all key averages and rising stochastics suggest the market is positioning for a move higher, though confirmation through a break of nearby resistance is still needed.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures fell sharply on Thursday, settling at 242.40, down 5.20 on the session as selling pressure accelerated and prices broke decisively below the previous support at 255.65. The move marks a significant deterioration in the technical picture, with futures now trading well below the 10 DMA at 258.12, the 40 DMA at 277.75 and the 100 DMA at 292.34. The size of the decline highlights aggressive selling and a lack of buying interest at lower levels.
The stochastics are deep in oversold territory, with %K at 7.02 below %D at 13.75, confirming that downside momentum is dominant and showing no signs of turning. The MACD diff is negative at -1.72 and widening, indicating that selling pressure is building further rather than stabilising.
To confirm continuation lower, futures need to remain below 255.65, with the next downside target around 240 and then 230. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim 255.65 and then the 10 DMA at 258.12 to signal that the sell‑off is pausing. For now, the sharp move lower reinforces the bearish trend, with deeply oversold stochastics offering the only potential for a short‑term technical bounce, although there is no evidence of stabilisation yet.
London coffee futures edged lower on Thursday, closing at 3270, down 8 on the session as prices continued to drift within the broader downtrend. Futures remain below the 10 DMA at 3353, the 40 DMA at 3377 and the 100 DMA at 3591, confirming that the bearish structure is firmly intact. The modest decline reflects continued selling pressure, with prices gravitating towards the key support at 3166.
The stochastics are weak, with %K at 17.34 below %D at 25.85, indicating that momentum remains firmly to the downside and is approaching oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative at -11.52 and widening, suggesting that selling pressure is intensifying rather than easing.
To confirm further downside, futures need to break below the 3166 support, which would expose the 3000 level. On the upside, a recovery requires a close above the 10 DMA at 3353, with a push through the 40 DMA at 3377 needed to ease immediate bearish pressure. For now, the gradual drift lower contrasts with the sharper sell‑off in New York, but the indicators point to continued weakness, with the market vulnerable to further losses towards key support.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Thursday, settling at 4044, down 2.41% on the session as selling pressure returned after the recent recovery. The decline took prices back below the 10 DMA at 4066, signalling a loss of near‑term momentum, although futures remain above the 40 DMA at 3834, keeping the medium‑term recovery structure from the 2846 low intact. Prices continue to trade well below the 200 DMA at 5074, reinforcing that the broader trend remains corrective.
The stochastics are mid‑range, with %K at 51.07 above %D at 47.75, suggesting that momentum is neutral rather than clearly directional. The MACD diff is negative at -27.66 and widening, indicating that the recent recovery has stalled and that selling pressure is re‑emerging.
To confirm further downside, futures need to remain below the 10 DMA and break through support around 4000, which would expose a move towards the 40 DMA at 3834. A break below this level would weaken the recovery structure and bring 3500 back into focus. On the upside, a reclaim of the 10 DMA and a push above 4200 would be needed to stabilise the near‑term picture and re‑establish upward momentum. For now, the pullback below the 10 DMA highlights vulnerability, with the market needing to hold above the 40 DMA to keep the broader recovery intact.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
