NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday, settling at 14.23, down 0.11 on the session as prices continued to slide beneath all key moving averages. Futures remain below the 10 DMA at 14.60, the 40 DMA at 14.78 and the 100 DMA at 14.55, confirming a deteriorating near‑term structure. The close just below the 14.30 support level is a bearish development, as this area had held on several previous occasions and now risks being confirmed as broken.
The stochastics are deeply oversold, with %K at 12.47 below %D at 20.69, indicating that downside momentum remains dominant. The MACD diff is negative at -0.08 and widening, confirming that selling pressure continues to build.
To confirm further downside, futures need to sustain below 14.30, which would open the way towards the April low at 13.34. On the upside, a recovery requires a close back above 14.30 and then the 100 DMA at 14.55 to stabilise the near‑term picture. For now, the breach of 14.30 is a significant warning signal, and while deeply oversold stochastics may offer scope for a short‑term bounce, the trend remains firmly to the downside.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures edged lower on Friday, closing at 438.30, down 2.60 on the session as prices slipped back below the 10 DMA at 440.43. Futures remain above the 40 DMA at 435.73 and the 100 DMA at 426.74, keeping the broader recovery structure from the 393.80 low intact, although the loss of the 10 DMA weakens the near‑term tone.
The stochastics are easing from mid‑range levels, with %K at 54.56 below %D at 59.74, suggesting that upside momentum is fading. The MACD diff has turned marginally negative at -0.28, indicating that the market is transitioning from a supportive to a more neutral footing.
To confirm further downside, futures need to break below the 40 DMA at 435.73, which would expose the 100 DMA at 426.74 and signal a more meaningful shift in the recovery structure. On the upside, a close back above the 10 DMA at 440.43 is needed to re‑establish the constructive tone, with a push through 445 required to open the way towards the mid‑450s. For now, the loss of the 10 DMA is a cautionary signal, though the broader recovery remains supported while the 40 DMA holds.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged higher on Friday, settling at 253.40, up 3.15 on the session as prices continued to recover from recent lows. The move pushed futures further above the 10 DMA at 247.00, building on Thursday's reclaim of this level and confirming improving short‑term momentum. However, prices remain well below the 40 DMA at 270.37 and the 100 DMA at 286.81, highlighting that the broader structure is still under pressure. The former support at 255.65 is now within reach and will be a key test for the recovery.
The stochastics are rising from oversold levels, with %K at 34.41 above %D at 20.55, signalling that downside momentum has eased and a short‑term recovery is developing. The MACD diff has turned positive at 0.55, indicating that the balance is shifting from sellers to buyers for the first time in the recent downturn.
To confirm a more meaningful recovery, futures need to break above the 255.65 resistance, which would open the way towards the 40 DMA at 270.37. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 10 DMA and a move back below 247 would signal that the rebound has stalled. For now, the second consecutive higher close and improving indicators suggest the market is building a near‑term base, though further follow‑through above key resistance is needed.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures jumped sharply on Friday, closing at 3525, up 130 on the session in a strong move that took prices above the 10 DMA at 3314 and the 40 DMA at 3382. Futures are now testing the 100 DMA at 3552, which is the first time the market has approached this level since the recent sell‑off. The strength of the move, accompanied by a significant increase in volume to 21,135 contracts, highlights a decisive shift in near‑term sentiment.
The stochastics are rising sharply, with %K at 59.86 well above %D at 37.70, confirming strong upside momentum. The MACD diff is positive at 16.55 and widening rapidly, signalling that buying pressure is accelerating and the bearish trend is being challenged.
To confirm a broader recovery, futures need to break and hold above the 100 DMA at 3552, which would open the way towards 3700. On the downside, the 40 DMA at 3382 now acts as near‑term support, with a break below this level needed to undermine the recovery. For now, the sharp rally, strong volume and rapidly improving indicators represent the most constructive signal in London coffee in several weeks, though the 100 DMA remains the critical hurdle.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Friday, settling at 3868, up 1.84% on the session as buying interest returned after the recent sell‑off. Despite the firmer close, futures remain below the 10 DMA at 3950 and the 40 DMA at 3899, indicating that near‑term resistance levels have not yet been reclaimed. Prices continue to trade well below the 200 DMA at 4955, keeping the broader corrective trend intact.
The stochastics remain weak, with %K at 16.25 below %D at 22.78, suggesting that downside momentum is still dominant despite the higher close. The MACD diff is negative at -47.31 and remains wide, indicating that selling pressure has not yet eased meaningfully.
To confirm a recovery, futures need to close back above the 40 DMA at 3899 and then the 10 DMA at 3950, which would ease immediate downside pressure and bring the 4200 area into focus. On the downside, a failure to build on Friday's gain and a break below 3700 would signal renewed weakness towards 3500. For now, the higher close offers a tentative pause in the recent downturn, but indicators remain weak and the market needs to reclaim key averages to confirm a shift in momentum.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
