NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held broadly unchanged on Thursday as prices edged lower by 0.05 to close at 18.50. Futures briefly traded above 19.00 during the session, but the move was not sustained, leaving the market below this key resistance at the close. Prices remain well above the 10 DMA at 17.88, while the 40 DMA at 16.18 and the 100 DMA at 15.27 continue to rise below the market, maintaining the constructive moving-average structure.
The stochastics remain in overbought territory, but %K has slipped below %D at 87.56/89.21, suggesting that the recent upside momentum is beginning to soften. Conversely, the MACD diff is positive and diverging at 0.1657, with the MACD line at 0.7736 above the signal line at 0.6079, highlighting continued buying pressure despite the loss of momentum in the stochastics.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above 19.00 and hold above Thursday’s intraday high around 19.20. A close above this area could set the scene for a move towards 19.50 and then 20.00. On the downside, a failure to regain 19.00 could see prices retreat towards 18.00 and the 10 DMA at 17.88. A close below the 10 DMA would weaken the recent bullish structure and could trigger a deeper correction towards 17.50.
The latest candle has a small body and a pronounced upper wick, signalling a strong rejection of prices above 19.00 and some hesitation following the sharp rally. The positive MACD diff continues to support the upside, but the stochastic crossover and rejection of the session high suggest that consolidation could emerge in the near term. Futures need to close above 19.00 to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged higher on Thursday as buying pressure saw prices gain 4.60 and close at 540.30. Futures extended the recent rally above 540 during the session and briefly approached 560, but the market failed to hold the full advance into the close. Prices remain well above the 10 DMA at 517.95, with the 40 DMA at 479.13 and the 100 DMA at 452.53 providing increasingly distant support. The bullish alignment of the moving averages confirms the strength of the recent advance.
The stochastics remain in overbought territory, although %K has moved below %D at 89.31/90.82, suggesting that upside momentum is beginning to ease. The MACD diff is positive and diverging at 4.8512, with the MACD line at 19.1527 above the signal line at 14.3015, highlighting sustained buying pressure.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above 540 and break through Thursday’s intraday resistance around 555-560. A close above this area could set the scene for further gains towards 570. On the downside, a failure to retain support at 540 could trigger a move back towards 530 before the 10 DMA at 517.95. A close below the 10 DMA would weaken the bullish momentum and bring the previous breakout area around 500-510 back into focus.
The latest positive candle has a long upper wick, signalling strong intraday rejection near 560 despite the higher close. This, alongside the bearish crossover in overbought stochastics, suggests that the market could struggle to extend the rally immediately. The positive and widening MACD diff maintains the constructive underlying outlook, but futures need to close above 560 to confirm the next move higher.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged higher on Thursday as futures gained 1.10 and closed at 329.30. Prices held above the 10 DMA at 320.04 and the 40 DMA at 313.52, while the 100 DMA at 290.36 remains well below the market. This moving-average structure supports the improving short-term outlook, although futures are still trading below the recent resistance around 335 and the late-June high near 350.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 71.64/65.15, signalling growing buying momentum as %K approaches overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive and diverging at 1.20, with the MACD line above the signal line, confirming renewed appetite for higher prices.
To confirm the bullish indicators, futures need to break above resistance at 335 and then target 350. A close above 350 would confirm a continuation of the recovery and could set the scene for higher prices towards 375. On the downside, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA at 320.04. A break below this level could trigger a test of the 40 DMA at 313.52, with a close below both averages weakening the short-term bullish momentum and bringing 300 back into focus.
The latest candle has a narrow body after the recent move higher, suggesting some hesitation below resistance, but the market continues to find support above the short-term moving averages. The indicators point to further gains, although futures need to close above 335 to confirm the near-term outlook.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held broadly unchanged on Thursday as marginal selling pressure saw prices close at 3726, down 2 on the session. Futures remained just above the 10 DMA at 3717 but below the 40 DMA at 3783, leaving the market within a narrow area between short-term support and resistance. The 100 DMA at 3554 continues to provide more robust support below the market.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 43.11/34.32, suggesting that buying momentum is beginning to recover from the recent lows. However, the MACD diff is negative and diverging at -11.56, with the MACD line below the signal line, highlighting continued selling pressure and leaving the momentum signals mixed.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA at 3717 and break above the 40 DMA at 3783. A close above this level could trigger a test of 3900, before the 4000 resistance comes back into focus. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA would weaken the recent recovery and could set the scene for a test of the 100 DMA at 3554. A close below this longer-term support would confirm stronger bearish momentum and bring 3500 into focus.
The latest small-bodied candle reflects indecision as prices struggled below the 40 DMA, while the long lower wick seen during the recent rebound indicates buying interest at lower levels. Rising stochastics support a recovery, but the negative MACD diff and resistance at the 40 DMA could limit the upside. We expect futures to remain rangebound in the near term, with a close above 3783 needed to confirm the outlook for higher prices.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Thursday as prices gained 0.55% and closed at 6064. Futures remained above the 10 DMA at 5878 and the 40 DMA at 5661, while the 200 DMA at 4655 continues to provide longer-term support. Price action has stabilised above 6000 after the market recovered from the late-July pullback, although futures remain below the key resistance at 6458.80.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 69.37/59.64, signalling renewed appetite for higher prices. However, the MACD diff is marginally negative at -0.28, with the MACD and signal lines almost converging, suggesting that the recent buying pressure has yet to produce a decisive momentum shift.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above 6000 and break through the 6458.80 resistance level. A close above this level could set the scene for a move towards 6700 and strengthen the broader recovery. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA at 5878 could trigger a test of the 40 DMA at 5661. A close below the 40 DMA would weaken the short-term structure and bring the key support at 5325.08 back into focus.
The latest positive candle shows that buyers remain active above the short-term moving averages, but the relatively narrow body highlights continued hesitation below the recent highs. The rising stochastics support further gains, although a positive divergence in the MACD diff is needed to confirm stronger upside momentum. We expect futures to remain supported in the near term, with a break above 6458.80 required to extend the recovery.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
