Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar futures jumped yesterday, with the 10-DMA at 19.19 continuing to provide support and prompting a close at 19.75. Although volumes remain historically elevated, activity was more subdued than on Wednesday, suggesting that bullish technical sentiment continues to support momentum, albeit with the scale of the upside beginning to moderate. The %K/%D stochastics have moved back into overbought territory, while the MACD diff is close to converging on the upside into positive territory. However, the longer upper wick indicates that the market rejected prices above 19.80. Overall, we expect the rally to lose some momentum in the near term, although this is likely to be temporary. If the 10-DMA continues to hold, futures could retest 19.80 and then 20.00, the February 2025 high. Alternatively, a break below the 10-DMA and the key 19.00 level could prompt a technical correction towards 18.00. For now, the technical indicators point to an exhausted upside rather than a sharp trend reversal, with some softer price action likely as the market consolidates recent gains. The 10-DMA remains key.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn sugar futures jumped yesterday, breaking above resistance at 540 before closing at 541.60. The stochastics continue to edge higher and are close to entering overbought territory. However, the MACD diff remains negative, although it is converging, highlighting a moderation in the selling pressure seen earlier this month rather than a decisive shift to bullish momentum. This leaves some room on the upside, and with resistance at 540 now cleared and likely to act as support, sentiment may strengthen towards the August high at 554.70. To confirm further gains, futures need to hold above both the 10-DMA at 529.32 and the 540 level before testing 544. Alternatively, the next downside support stands at 520, and a break below this level could prompt a sharper decline. With volumes diminishing, we believe there is still some room on the upside, although gains are likely to be more cautious as the market tests 544.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY coffee futures softened yesterday after once again struggling above the 100-DMA resistance at 292.88, prompting a close at 288.10. The stochastics suggest that the recent weakness may be nearing an end, with %K/%D in oversold territory, although they have yet to converge on the upside. The MACD diff remains negative but is beginning to flatten. In addition, the clear hammer candlestick formation traditionally signals the potential for a trend reversal, suggesting that downside pressure may be waning. The distinction between a stabilising market and a more decisive bullish reversal will depend on the clearance of nearby resistance. The 100-DMA and the 300 level remain key; a break above both would confirm stronger upside momentum. On the downside, yesterday’s low around 282 now provides the next support level, followed by 276. We believe bearish momentum is fading and that the market may be approaching a trend reversal, although confirmation above resistance is still required.

Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn coffee futures gained ground yesterday, breaking above the 10-DMA and testing the 100-DMA before settling at 3574. The stochastics also favour the upside, strengthening out of oversold territory, while the MACD diff is close to converging on the upside—a clear bullish signal. Volumes have also increased on positive sessions. Yesterday’s long lower wick shows that prices below 3350 were rejected, triggering a rebound in buying during the late afternoon. In the medium term, futures need to hold above 3500 before attempting another break of the 100-DMA at 3583. On the downside, a move below 3500 could trigger losses towards the 10-DMA at 3464. The longer candle body and lower wick point to continued appetite for higher prices, but the next resistance threshold will be crucial in confirming whether this momentum can extend into next week.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures