NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday as selling pressure saw prices close at 18.50. Futures settled below the 10 DMA at 18.62 but remained above the rising 40 DMA at 18.25, leaving the market between short-term resistance and medium-term support. The recent recovery from around 18.00 has therefore stalled, while the sequence of lower highs since the August peak near 20.00 continues to weigh on the immediate outlook. Nevertheless, the 40 DMA and the 100 DMA at 16.37 are still rising, preserving the broader constructive structure.
The stochastics are beginning to stabilise, with %K/%D at 36.92/36.83 and %K marginally above %D. This tentative upside crossover suggests that the recent selling momentum is moderating, although the limited separation between the lines provides little confirmation of a sustained recovery. Conversely, the MACD diff is negative and diverging at -0.1486, with the MACD line at 0.1686 below the signal line at 0.3172, highlighting continued selling pressure and leaving the momentum signals mixed.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 40 DMA at 18.25 and then take out the psychological support at 18.00. A close below these levels could set the scene for a move towards 17.50, before the 100 DMA at 16.37 comes into focus. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support at the 40 DMA could encourage another test of the 10 DMA at 18.62. Futures then need to recover above 19.00 to ease the bearish pressure and target resistance around 19.50. A break above the August highs near 20.00 would be required to restore the stronger bullish trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower on Friday as prices closed at 515.20. The market settled below the 10 DMA at 520.13 and marginally below the 40 DMA at 516.85, weakening the short-term technical structure after the recovery towards 530 lost momentum. Prices have continued to form lower highs since the August peak near 555, while the failure to retain support above the 40 DMA increases the risk of further weakness. However, the rising 100 DMA at 476.39 remains well below current prices, meaning the broader recovery structure has not yet been reversed.
The stochastics remain subdued, with %K/%D at 33.22/35.86 and %K below %D, suggesting continued appetite for lower prices. The lines are approaching oversold territory but have not yet produced a convincing upside crossover. The MACD diff is negative and diverging at -2.8932, with the MACD line at 1.7239 below the signal line at 4.6171, confirming the loss of buying momentum and supporting the weaker near-term outlook.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below the 40 DMA at 516.85 and break through support at 510. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a test of the psychological support at 500. A break below 500 would strengthen the bearish momentum and bring the 100 DMA at 476.39 into focus. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 40 DMA and then take out the 10 DMA at 520.13. A close above both moving averages could trigger a test of 530, while a break through the 535–540 resistance area would be needed to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged higher on Friday as buying interest at lower levels saw prices close at 271.25. The market nevertheless remained below the 10 DMA at 275.30, following an extended decline from the August highs around 340. Futures are also trading well below the 100 DMA at 291.45 and the 40 DMA at 302.77, maintaining the bearish moving-average structure and confirming that the broader downward trend remains intact.
The stochastics are rising from near-oversold territory, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 28.69/21.34, suggesting that selling momentum is beginning to ease. However, the MACD diff remains negative at -1.62, with the MACD line at -11.36 below the signal line at -9.74, highlighting continued selling pressure despite the tentative stabilisation in prices.
To confirm a recovery, futures need to break above the 10 DMA at 275.30 and then take out resistance at 280. A sustained close above these levels could set the scene for a test of the 100 DMA at 291.45. A break above this average would ease the broader bearish pressure, although the declining 40 DMA at 302.77 would remain a robust resistance level. On the downside, futures need to hold above the immediate support around 270. A close below this level would confirm renewed selling pressure and could trigger a test of 260, before the June support area around 245–250 comes back into focus.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures edged higher on Friday as buying interest emerged near the recent lows, allowing prices to close at 3342. Despite the modest recovery, futures remained below the 10 DMA at 3378 and continued to trade well beneath the 40 and 100 DMAs at 3573 and 3580, respectively. The proximity of the two longer-term averages creates a robust resistance area around 3570–3580, while the sequence of lower highs and lower lows since July maintains the broader bearish structure.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 36.47/27.04, suggesting that the market is recovering from near-oversold conditions and that selling momentum is beginning to moderate. Conversely, the MACD diff remains negative at -6.83, with the MACD line at -84.45 below the signal line at -77.62, confirming that broader selling pressure remains intact.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the 10 DMA at 3378 and then take out resistance at 3400. A sustained close above this area could set the scene for a recovery towards 3500, before the 40 and 100 DMAs at 3573 and 3580 come into focus. Futures would need to close above this moving-average resistance to confirm a more meaningful improvement in the technical outlook. On the downside, a failure to hold above 3300 could trigger a test of the recent support around 3250. A close below this area would confirm renewed bearish momentum and could bring 3200 into focus.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Friday as buying interest continued to emerge from the recent September lows, with prices closing at 5745. Futures settled marginally below the 10 DMA at 5751 and remained below the 40 DMA at 5951, leaving the market beneath the key short-term resistance area. Nevertheless, prices remain comfortably above the rising 100 DMA at 5216, preserving the broader recovery structure despite the pullback from the August high near 6800.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 54.56/49.48, signalling improving buying momentum and supporting the recent rebound. However, the MACD diff remains negative at -49.74, with the MACD line at -77.64 below the signal line at -27.90, highlighting that the broader bearish momentum has yet to reverse.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the 10 DMA at 5751 and then take out the more robust resistance of the 40 DMA at 5951. A sustained close above these levels could set the scene for a move through 6000 and towards the recent resistance area around 6200. A break above 6200 would strengthen the recovery and could bring 6500 back into focus. On the downside, a failure to regain the short-term moving averages could trigger another test of support around 5600. A close below this level would weaken the recent recovery and could see futures return towards 5400, before the 100 DMA at 5216 comes into focus.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
