NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures fell sharply on Thursday as profit-taking following the recent rally saw prices close at 19.37. Futures rejected prices above 20.00 but remained above the 10 DMA at 19.13 and the 40 DMA at 18.82, while the rising 100 DMA at 16.71 continues to support the broader upward trend. The moving-average structure therefore remains constructive, although the strong rejection from the latest high shows that buying appetite has weakened above the psychological 20.00 level.
The stochastics have turned lower, with %K crossing below %D at 58.95/79.91. This pronounced bearish crossover from near-overbought territory signals fading upside momentum and increasing appetite for lower prices in the immediate term. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 0.0710, with the MACD line at 0.3293 above the signal line at 0.2583, suggesting that the underlying bullish momentum has not yet been fully reversed. However, the narrow differential indicates that the upside signal remains modest.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 10 DMA at 19.13 and then take out the 40 DMA at 18.82. A close below this support area could set the scene for a move towards 18.50, followed by the more robust psychological support at 18.00. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support above the 10 DMA could encourage another test of 20.00. Futures need to close above the latest high around 20.20 to invalidate Thursday’s rejection and confirm further upside towards 20.50.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures fell sharply on Thursday as selling pressure following the recent breakout saw prices close at 552.00. Futures rejected the area around 570 after reaching a fresh high but remained comfortably above the 10 DMA at 538.99 and the 40 DMA at 528.96. The rising 100 DMA at 485.61 remains substantially below current prices, confirming that the broader upward trend remains intact despite the latest reversal. However, the failure to sustain the move above 560 suggests that the recent advance had become stretched.
The stochastics have turned lower, with %K crossing below %D at 61.89/80.64. This bearish crossover from overbought territory signals a marked loss of upside momentum and suggests further appetite for lower prices in the immediate term. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 3.9244, with the MACD line at 10.5355 above the signal line at 6.6111, highlighting that the underlying momentum structure remains supportive. The indicators therefore point to a near-term correction within a still-constructive broader trend.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below 550 and then take out the 10 DMA at 538.99. A sustained close below this average could set the scene for a move towards the 40 DMA at 528.96, with the 525–530 area representing the key support protecting the recent breakout. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support above 550 could trigger another test of 560. Futures would then need to break above the latest high around 570 to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices and open the way towards 580.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures fell sharply on Thursday as renewed selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 281.35. The reversal took futures marginally below the 10 DMA at 282.28, while prices remained beneath the 100 DMA at 291.90 and the 40 DMA at 296.28. The concentration of the longer-term averages between 292 and 296 creates robust resistance above the market, leaving the broader technical structure weak despite the recent recovery from the September low.
The stochastics are falling, with %K crossing below %D at 44.16/65.70. This pronounced downside divergence signals a clear loss of buying momentum after the indicators recently approached overbought territory. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 2.3828, with the MACD line at -3.6482 above the signal line at -6.0310, highlighting that underlying selling pressure has moderated. However, both lines remain below zero, meaning the improvement in momentum has not yet developed into a fully bullish signal.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below the 10 DMA at 282.28 and break through support around 280. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 275, followed by the more robust support around 270. A break below 270 would weaken the recent recovery further and bring the September low around 260 back into focus. On the upside, futures need to regain the 10 DMA before targeting the 100 DMA at 291.90. A close above the 40 DMA at 296.28 and the psychological 300 level would be required to confirm a more sustained recovery.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures fell sharply on Thursday as selling pressure saw prices close at 3398. Futures moved below the 10 DMA at 3433 and remained beneath the 40 DMA at 3493 and the 100 DMA at 3581, reversing the recent recovery and restoring the bearish alignment below all three moving averages. The rejection from the 3580–3600 area was particularly significant, as futures failed to establish support above the 100 DMA before moving back through the 40 DMA.
The stochastics are falling, with %K crossing below %D and diverging on the downside at 37.26/61.94. This sharp reversal from near-overbought territory signals a pronounced loss of buying momentum and growing appetite for lower prices. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive and diverging at 20.8254, with the MACD line at -19.0332 above the signal line at -39.8586, confirming that the broader selling pressure has continued to moderate. Nevertheless, both MACD lines remain below zero, while the deterioration in price action and stochastics leaves the immediate outlook weak.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below Thursday’s close and take out support around 3350. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 3300, followed by the September low around 3220–3250. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 10 DMA at 3433 and then reclaim the 40 DMA at 3493 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A close above the 100 DMA at 3581 would be required to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices towards 3600–3700.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower on Thursday as selling pressure saw prices close at 5776. Futures remained above the 10 DMA at 5697 but below the 40 DMA at 5913, leaving the market between short-term support and medium-term resistance. Prices also remain comfortably above the rising 100 DMA at 5339, preserving the broader recovery structure. However, the latest failure to sustain gains above 5900 reinforces the significance of the 5913–6000 resistance area.
The stochastics remain elevated, with %K/%D at 70.80/69.27, although the lines are beginning to converge after the recent rise. %K remains marginally above %D, suggesting that buying momentum has not completely faded, but the limited separation points to a less convincing upside signal. The MACD diff is positive at 17.34, with the MACD line at -44.24 above the signal line at -61.58, highlighting easing selling pressure. Nevertheless, both lines remain below zero, meaning the broader momentum recovery has yet to be fully confirmed.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to hold above the 10 DMA at 5697 and break through the 40 DMA at 5913. A sustained close above this average and the psychological 6000 level could set the scene for a move towards 6200, followed by the August resistance area around 6500–6800. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA could trigger a test of support around 5600. A close below this level would weaken the current recovery and bring 5500 into focus, before the more robust support of the 100 DMA at 5339.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
