NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday as profit-taking saw prices close at 20.06. Futures retained the psychological 20.00 level and remained above the 10 DMA at 19.93, while the rising 40 and 100 DMAs at 19.10 and 17.00, respectively, preserve the broader bullish structure. However, the failure to extend the latest advance beyond the recent highs around 20.30–20.40 suggests that buying appetite is beginning to weaken at the upper end of the range.
The stochastics are falling, with %K crossing below %D at 73.23/84.86. This bearish crossover from overbought territory signals fading buying momentum and leaves scope for further weakness. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 0.0668, with the MACD line at 0.4374 above the signal line at 0.3706, confirming that underlying momentum remains constructive. The positive differential is modest, however, suggesting that the strength of the bullish signal is easing.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below 20.00 and the 10 DMA at 19.93. A sustained close below these levels could set the scene for a move towards 19.50, followed by the more robust support of the 40 DMA at 19.10. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support around 20.00 could encourage another test of resistance at 20.30–20.40. Futures need to close above this area to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices towards 20.50 and then 21.00.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower on Friday as selling pressure from the recent highs saw prices close at 568.30. Futures remained above the 10 DMA at 565.83 and comfortably above the rising 40 and 100 DMAs at 535.27 and 493.48, respectively. The bullish alignment of the moving averages maintains the broader upward trend, but the latest rejection from the 575 area suggests that resistance is strengthening at the upper end of the range.
The stochastics are falling, with %K crossing below %D at 70.55/83.40. This bearish crossover from overbought territory signals a loss of upside momentum and suggests further appetite for lower prices. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 2.3447, with the MACD line at 13.7657 above the signal line at 11.4210, confirming that the underlying trend remains constructive. However, the positive differential is narrowing, indicating that buying pressure is beginning to moderate.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the 10 DMA at 565.83 and then take out support at 560. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 550, before the 40 DMA at 535.27 comes into focus. On the upside, futures need to regain 570 and break through resistance around 575. A close above this area would invalidate the latest rejection and could trigger a test of 580, followed by the psychological 600 level.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures rallied sharply on Friday as strong buying pressure saw prices close at 294.50. Futures moved decisively above the 10 DMA at 286.52 and broke through the closely aligned 40 and 100 DMAs at 290.87 and 293.25, respectively. This improves the short-term technical structure and places the market directly beneath the psychological resistance at 300. However, the narrow margin above the 100 DMA means the breakout still requires confirmation.
The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside at 76.65/58.16. %K has moved into overbought territory, signalling strong buying momentum but also suggesting that the latest advance is becoming stretched. The MACD diff is positive at 2.27, with the MACD line at -0.78 above the signal line at -3.05, highlighting continued improvement in momentum. However, both lines remain below zero, meaning the broader bullish reversal has not yet been fully confirmed.
To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to remain above the 100 DMA at 293.25 and break through resistance at 300. A sustained close above 300 could set the scene for a move towards 310, followed by the previous resistance area around 320. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 292.87–293.25 moving-average area could trigger a test of the 40 DMA at 290.87 and then the 10 DMA at 286.52. A close below the 10 DMA would weaken the latest breakout and bring 280 back into focus.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures weakened on Friday as sustained selling pressure saw prices close at 3405. Futures remained below the closely aligned 10 and 40 DMAs at 3456 and 3457, respectively, while the 100 DMA at 3584 continues to provide more significant resistance. The rejection from the 3456–3457 area maintains the weaker short-term structure and leaves the market close to immediate support around 3400.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 15.89/21.25. Both lines have moved into oversold territory, signalling pronounced bearish momentum but also indicating that the decline is becoming stretched. The MACD diff remains positive at 4.28, with the MACD line at -16.53 above the signal line at -20.81, suggesting that broader selling pressure has not yet accelerated decisively. However, both lines remain below zero and the positive differential is narrowing, weakening the previously improving momentum signal.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below 3400 and then take out support around 3350. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 3300, followed by the September low around 3220–3250. On the upside, oversold conditions could encourage a technical rebound, but futures need to regain the 10 and 40 DMAs at 3456–3457 to ease the immediate bearish pressure. A close above this resistance area could trigger a test of 3500, while the 100 DMA at 3584 would need to be broken to confirm a more sustained recovery.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures fell sharply on Friday as renewed selling pressure saw prices close at 5754. The decline pushed futures below the 10 DMA at 5825 and the 40 DMA at 5898, reversing Thursday’s attempted break higher and weakening the short-term technical structure. Prices remain above the rising 100 DMA at 5452, which continues to provide more robust support and preserves the broader recovery for now. However, the rejection from around 6000 and the return below both shorter-term averages reinforce the resistance between 5900 and 6000.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 34.23/57.57. The pronounced crossover signals a sharp loss of buying momentum and suggests further appetite for lower prices. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 22.01, with the MACD line at -2.82 above the signal line at -24.83, indicating that broader selling pressure has continued to moderate. Both MACD lines remain below zero, however, and the latest price reversal leaves the indicators mixed.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below the 10 DMA at 5825 and break through support around 5700. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 5600, followed by the more robust support of the 100 DMA at 5452. A break below the 100 DMA would confirm a more significant deterioration and bring 5200–5000 into focus. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 10 DMA and then take out the 40 DMA at 5898. A sustained close above this resistance and 6000 would ease the bearish pressure and could trigger a test of 6200.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures fell sharply on Friday as selling pressure pushed prices down to close at 4356. The decline took futures below the 10 DMA at 4416 and marginally below the 40 DMA at 4377, weakening the recent recovery and leaving the market below its short-term moving averages. The rising 100 DMA at 4043 remains comfortably below current prices and continues to support the broader structure. Nevertheless, the repeated failure to hold above 4500 and Friday’s move beneath the 40 DMA point to a weaker immediate outlook.
The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside at 33.95/58.87. This sharp crossover signals a pronounced loss of buying momentum and growing appetite for lower prices. Conversely, the MACD diff remains positive at 10.00, with the MACD line at 29.46 above the signal line at 19.46, indicating that the broader momentum structure remains constructive. The narrowing positive differential nevertheless suggests that the earlier improvement is beginning to lose strength.
To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to remain below the 40 DMA at 4377 and break through support around 4300. A sustained close below this level could set the scene for a move towards 4200, followed by the psychological support at 4000 and the 100 DMA at 4043. On the upside, futures need to recover above the 40 DMA and then regain the 10 DMA at 4416. A close above these levels could prompt another test of 4500, while a sustained break above 4500 would be needed to confirm renewed appetite for higher prices towards 4600.
