The first half of 2026 was dominated by geopolitical risk, inflation concerns and shifting monetary policy expectations. As we move into H2, many of those themes remain relevant, but the market focus has become more nuanced. Investors are no longer reacting to events themselves, but to the way they influence energy prices, inflation, and ultimately policy expectations. The result is an increasingly uneven backdrop across commodity markets. Across base metals, this has produced a more selective environment in which individual supply-demand dynamics, positioning and sector-specific demand trends are playing a larger role in price formation than broad macro sentiment alone.
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Improving CNH liquidity and stronger offshore infrastructure are helping turn yuan appreciation into a broader currency story.
Shanghai, China
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