FX Outlook
Daily FX Report

Daily FX Report

Wed 30 April 2025 07:00

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Authors

Daria Efanova Head of Research

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EUR / USD

EUR/USD maintains a broadly bullish technical structure despite recent minor weakness, with the currency trading comfortably above the 1.135 level. Recent German consumer confidence improvements, though still negative, coupled with the ECB's inflation expectations reaching an 11-month high of 2.9%, suggest underlying economic resilience in the Eurozone that could support the euro.

The US dollar faces headwinds from cooling labour market conditions, evidenced by March JOLTS job openings falling below expectations to 7.192 million, while US consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2020.

The immediate technical outlook suggests the potential for further upside if buyers maintain support at 1.1262, though a break below the 20-day moving average at 1.13 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.10.

USD / JPY

USD/JPY continues to face downward pressure, primarily driven by the significant interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, with the Bank of Japan maintaining its accommodative stance at 0.5% while the Federal Reserve holds higher rates. Technical analysis reveals the pair is trading below key moving averages, suggesting a broader downtrend since reaching 158.55 in early January.

Recent discussions between Japan's Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent underscore the importance of ongoing currency diplomacy, while market participants closely monitor upcoming US economic data releases, particularly GDP and PCE inflation figures, for potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy.

The pair's immediate technical outlook indicates resistance at 144.74 and support at 139.92, with a potential bullish scenario emerging if prices break above the 20-day SMA. The yen continues to benefit from the current environment in the face of continued market uncertainty, and we expect this to hold in the near term.

GBP / USD

GBP/USD has demonstrated remarkable resilience in recent trading sessions, maintaining its position above 1.34 while benefiting from the Bank of England's conservative approach to rate cuts. The currency pair's strength is particularly noteworthy given the projected 85 basis points of reductions in 2025, which is relatively modest compared to other major central banks' expected policy adjustments.

The pound's appeal as a dollar alternative has been enhanced by the UK's favourable position regarding US tariffs, facing only a universal 10% charge rather than targeted penalties, and its diplomatic approach to trade relations has further bolstered market confidence.

Technical analysis reveals strong support levels; however, potential headwinds exist given UK economy's vulnerability to global recession risks, while immediate resistance around 1.344 could challenge further upside momentum. The pair's immediate outlook appears constructive as long as support at 1.340 holds.

Economic Calendar

30042025

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

This report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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