EUR / USD
The EUR/USD pair has shown strong upward momentum, benefiting from the diverging rate expectations between the Fed and ECB following the softer-than-expected US headline CPI reading. Growing expectations of a 25bps September Fed rate cut, which is now fully priced in contrasts with ECB cautious stance with only a 7% chance of a September cut.
The technical outlook appears constructive, with EUR/USD maintaining its position above the crucial 200-day moving average of 1.10 and near the 50-day moving average of 1.17, suggesting sustained bullish momentum. European economic sentiment remains subdued reflecting concerns about US tariff impact on the EU economy. Despite these headwinds, the euro is benefiting from the dollar's broad softening, pushing the pair toward resistance at 1.181.
The currency pair's immediate trajectory appears to hinge on two critical factors: the potential breach of resistance at 1.181, which could open the path to 1.19, and the outcome of the upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, which has introduced an element of caution in currency markets.
USD / JPY
The USD/JPY pair has weakened following US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's critical comments about the Bank of Japan being "behind the curve" on inflation, triggering a significant strengthening in the Japanese yen. Technical analysis reveals a decline from 148 to 146.5, with the pair now trading below key moving averages, including the 200-day MA at 146.9 and the 30-day VWAP at 147.8, indicating sustained bearish momentum.
The currency pair's immediate outlook appears bearish, influenced by both fundamental factors, including a fully priced in Fed rate cut in September, and technical indicators showing increased selling pressure during Asian trading sessions. The interplay between potential BOJ policy normalization and Fed rate cut expectations has created a complex trading environment, with the 146.7 level serving as a crucial support zone that could determine the pair's near-term direction.
Market participants are now anticipating a possible BOJ rate hike before year-end, particularly given mounting international pressure, which could drive further yen appreciation if the yield differential between US and Japanese bonds continues to narrow.
GBP / USD
The GBP/USD pair has strengthened, driven primarily by the diverging monetary policy stances between the BoE and the Fed. The BOE's hawkish position on maintaining higher rates, coupled with growing expectations for Fed rate cuts, has created a supportive environment for sterling appreciation.
Technical indicators reinforce this bullish outlook, with the pair trading comfortably above both its 200-day and 50-day moving averages at 1.30 and 1.35 respectively, while maintaining strong buying pressure. The currency pair has established robust support at the 30-day VWAP of 1.34, suggesting a solid foundation for potential further gains.
Recent US inflation data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments regarding a possible 50 basis point cut in September have accelerated dollar weakness, pushing GBP/USD to multi-week highs above 1.35. Looking ahead, a bullish scenario could see the pair testing the recent resistance at 1.38 if momentum continues.
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