EUR / USD
The EUR/USD pair has held up surprisingly well despite mounting political risks on both sides of the Atlantic, with the euro showing resilience in the face of disappointing German growth figures, even as firm US rate expectations continue to underpin the dollar. The removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about Federal Reserve independence, while France's political crisis, marked by an upcoming confidence vote, adds pressure on the euro.
Technical analysis reveals the pair trading between 1.160 and 1.168, maintaining a position above the crucial 200-day moving average at 1.11, though facing resistance at both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages around 1.17. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with an 85% probability of a September rate cut, contrasts sharply with the ECB's more conservative approach, which shows only a 1% likelihood of rate reduction in the same month.
The pair's immediate trajectory appears contingent on key technical levels, with a potential bullish breakout above 1.17 targeting 1.18, while a breach below 1.160 support could trigger a decline toward 1.155.
USD / JPY
The USD/JPY pair is experiencing downward pressure as concerns mount over Federal Reserve independence following President Trump's move to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, prompting some foreign investors to consider reducing their dollar exposure. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's hawkish stance on wage growth and labour market conditions suggests potential monetary tightening, providing fundamental support for the yen. The Japanese currency has gained additional support from rising government bond yields, with the 10-year JGB reaching a 16-year high of 1.632%, improving the yen's interest rate differentials.
Technical analysis indicates the pair is currently trading between critical levels, with the 50-day moving average at 147.2 serving as support and the 200-day moving average at 148.1 acting as resistance.
The immediate price action appears bearish, with the pair declining from 147.7 to 147.4, while the 30-day VWAP at 147.7 provides near-term resistance. A decisive break below the 50-day moving average could trigger further downside momentum toward the 145.8 support level, particularly if upcoming Japanese economic data supports the case for BOJ policy normalization.
GBP / USD
The GBP/USD currency pair is trading amid contrasting monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The BOE's hawkish stance, with markets pricing in minimal rate cuts this year, provides fundamental support for sterling against the dollar.
The Bank of England's hawkish positioning, particularly through Mann's advocacy for maintaining higher rates due to persistent inflation, provides fundamental support for sterling, although this is partially offset by concerning domestic economic indicators. UK unemployment projections suggesting a rise to 5% by August, coupled with accelerating food inflation at 4.2%, present significant headwinds for the British economy.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD maintains a constructive posture above the 200-day moving average at 1.31, while encountering immediate resistance at 1.35, with potential for further upside toward 1.378 if this level is breached. The pair's future trajectory appears increasingly dependent on upcoming US economic data releases, particularly GDP and PCE inflation figures, which will be crucial in determining the timing of potential Fed rate cuts, for which markets are currently pricing an 84% probability of September easing.
Economic Calendar
