EUR / USD
EUR/USD faced significant downward pressure as a stronger dollar prompted the pair to break decisively below the 1.1600 support level towards 1.1563. Recent German economic data revealed concerning weakness, with August exports declining 0.5% and imports dropping 1.3%, highlighting fundamental challenges in Europe's largest economy. Despite the prevailing divergence between the Fed and the ECB, with the ECB expected to hold rates steady as the Fed cuts rates into the year-end, a stronger dollar started to reveal the potential for prior complacency, where the pair might have stayed bid for too long on sentiment alone.
Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, with the pair breaking below 1.1600; however, a reading of 36 on the RSI suggests approaching oversold conditions. The recent decline has pushed the pair toward critical support levels, with the 1.1500 representing a crucial threshold.
Despite some political stability returning to France with Macron's commitment to name a new prime minister, the broader European economic challenges and diverging central bank policies suggest continued pressure on the euro. The immediate technical outlook remains challenging for bulls as the pair struggles to maintain ground above 1.1560, having retraced significantly from its mid-September peak of 1.187.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY continues to demonstrate remarkable strength, driven by the political uncertainty surrounding Sanae Takaichi's potential leadership and her expected policy alignment with "Abenomics," which suggests continued monetary easing. Technical analysis reveals that the currency pair is trading significantly above major moving averages, with price action showing persistent bullish momentum despite overbought conditions, as indicated by an RSI of 71.80.
The upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on October 29-30 represents a critical event, with markets closely monitoring the possibility of a 0.25% rate hike. However, Takaichi's known opposition to rate hikes has tempered these expectations. The combination of rising Japanese government bond yields and a weakening yen has created economic vulnerabilities, particularly considering Japan's substantial sovereign debt burden.
While the pair faces immediate resistance at 153.23 after multiple tests, a breakthrough could potentially target the January high of 154.67. However, the current overbought conditions suggest the possibility of a corrective move toward the psychological support level at 150.00.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD weakened as the dollar strengthened, prompting a correction to 1.3280. The UK economy continues to grapple with persistent inflation at 4.0%, double the Bank of England's target, while growth remains stagnant and fiscal tightening looms through higher taxes in the upcoming November budget. Recent technical analysis shows the pair breaking below crucial levels, with prices testing fresh lows around 1.3280 after dropping from 1.3400 to 1.3300.
The BOE's conservative stance on monetary policy, with markets not expecting rate cuts until April 2026, contrasts with the Fed's mixed messaging on rate cuts, which goes against the recent dollar trend, suggesting that recent price moves are more about a change in speculative direction rather than fundamentals. Still, the technical outlook appears bearish as the pair trades near two-week lows around 1.3360, with the 200-day moving average, located at 1.3170, providing temporary support. However, bearish momentum suggests potential moves toward 1.3150.
The combination of global flows supporting the US dollar and the UK's domestic economic challenges creates a challenging environment for sterling appreciation. While the RSI reading of 36.65 suggests approaching oversold conditions, a bullish reversal would require prices to reclaim the 1.335 level. However, the overall fundamental and technical picture suggests continued weakness in the near term.
Economic Calendar
