EUR / USD
EUR/USD remains underpinned by diverging monetary policy trajectories between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. We see the ECB firmly in a hold phase, with inflation close to target and policymakers signalling little appetite for renewed easing, while the Fed has paused rate cuts pending clearer signals from labour and inflation data. Market pricing continues to imply around 50–75bp of cumulative Fed easing in 2026 versus minimal ECB adjustment, a dynamic that we expect to remain structurally supportive for the euro over the medium term.
This week’s US labour and inflation releases represent the key near-term catalyst. We expect downside surprises to add volatility and weigh further on the dollar, particularly as broader concerns persist around US fiscal credibility and the medium-term safe-haven appeal of Treasuries. Beyond the data, attention may increasingly shift to the US response to pressure from Chinese regulators urging domestic banks to reduce US government bond holdings, an issue that echoes similar concerns among global asset managers and could reinforce scepticism toward the dollar.
Technically, EUR/USD retains a modest bullish bias, trading comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 1.17 and the 50-day SMA near 1.18, with spot around 1.190 and an intraday peak close to 1.193. The RSI near 61 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum. We expect a sustained break above the January high near 1.204 to be required for further upside extension, while near-term consolidation remains likely if US data meet expectations.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY is navigating a more politically driven macro backdrop following Prime Minister Takaichi’s decisive election victory, with the LDP securing a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house. While this strengthens the government’s mandate for fiscal expansion and has fuelled a rally in Japanese equities alongside pressure on JGBs, we believe the administration is likely to act cautiously to avoid further yen depreciation and a destabilising rise in bond yields. As a result, despite initial volatility, the yen has remained broadly range-bound between 153 and 159.
For the Bank of Japan, the trade-off remains delicate. A weaker yen would add to inflationary pressures and could justify rate hikes, yet accelerating tightening risks destabilising markets given the fiscal backdrop. We therefore expect a more predictable and cautious approach to both fiscal and monetary policy in the near term, helping to keep yen moves relatively orderly. The previous high near 159 remains a significant threshold that markets may be reluctant to test aggressively given persistent intervention concerns.
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has slipped from 156 to around 155, breaking below the 50-day SMA and 30-day VWAP near 156, with the RSI around 48 signalling neutral momentum. We see 155 as an important near-term support; failure to hold could expose a move toward the 200-day SMA and structural support near 152, while any rebound is likely to struggle beyond the mid-157 area given policy and intervention constraints.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD has shown resilience, supported by broader dollar softness, with the pair extending gains toward 1.37 and remaining comfortably above the 200-day, 50-day and 20-day SMAs. Momentum indicators remain balanced, with the RSI around 58, suggesting scope for further movement without immediate technical strain.
However, we see domestic political risk as a growing headwind for sterling. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure following the resignation of his chief of staff, an episode that has raised questions around leadership stability within Labour. Market participants are increasingly factoring in scenarios involving leadership challenges or a shift toward the party’s left wing, which we expect to add a risk premium to sterling and keep gilt yields elevated as investors reassess fiscal credibility.
Against this backdrop, we expect sterling’s upside to remain constrained despite ongoing dollar weakness, particularly as the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish tone, signalling inflation could return to target by April. Technically, a break above resistance at 1.3745 would open scope toward the monthly high near 1.3850, while failure to hold above the 20-day SMA at 1.36 and support at 1.3590 could trigger a pullback toward 1.3520. Overall, we see consolidation as the most likely outcome in the near term, with political uncertainty offsetting external dollar softness.
Economic Calendar
