Expert copper market insights
Our quarterly copper outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the copper futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a copper price range forecast as part of the report.
Copper Outlook – Q3 2023
Copper, in line with the rest of the base metals complex, weakened in Q2 2023. Much attention has been paid to diminishing stocks on the LME exchange as levels retest the recent and 2005-year lows. However, given the muted demand outlook, prices seem to be less impacted by stock moves. For 2023, copper is expected to remain in a slight surplus of 36k tonnes of refined material, one of the last years of surplus before underinvestment in mining capacity and longer-term demand prospects from EVs deepen the global material deficit...
In the previous quarter, expectations shifted from a pause in the central bank tightening cycle to further rate increases in July and potentially later in Q4 2023. As we move away from central bank-centric rhetoric, economic growth and consumer performance will be key in driving the risk sentiment across the board. Still, China's stimulus outlook remains critical to the longer-term narrative for metals this quarter. Sentiment has been improving as signs emerged that regulators are working to follow through on the promises made at the most recent Politburo meeting. However, markets remain cautious about the scale of support, and any positive news seems short-lived. As a result, the positive stimulus is more likely to solidify support levels than boost bullish sentiment in the near term.
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