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Daily Base Metals Report

Cautious Turn as Trade Doubts Resurface

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

 

Summary

  • US equities retreat as post-deal optimism fades
  • Copper holds above $9,500/t while aluminium and lead trade higher
  • Gold jumps on renewed trade uncertainty

Macro:

US equities opened slightly lower on Tuesday, as the initial relief rally following the US–China trade agreement began to lose momentum. With the 90-day tariff reprieve now in effect, markets have turned their focus to what happens next. Concerns are growing that the pause may ultimately only delay, rather than prevent, the elevated retaliatory measures. As a result, risk appetite has moderated, and expectations around monetary policy have started to shift. The dollar index hovered around 100.2, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remained firm near 4.5%. Market pricing has grown more dovish, with interest rate swaps now implying a 59% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. However, this outlook remains fluid, particularly if a collapse in trade talks were to rekindle inflation risks.

Base Metals:

While broader market sentiment has turned cautious, base metals held firm, supported by technical resilience and steady forward buying. Copper continued to trade above the $9,500/t level. Aluminium rose to $2,471.5/t, recovering ground lost in the previous trading days. Lead increased to $1,979.5/t, while zinc jumped to $2,710.5/t. Tin continued its quiet advance, closing at $33,083/t. Nickel eased slightly and settled at $15,518/t.

Precious Metals and Oil:

Gold attracted renewed safe-haven flows, rising to $3,280/oz as investors sought protection from lingering trade uncertainty. Silver followed, rising to $32.85/oz. Oil was broadly flat, with WTI and Brent trading at $62.3/bbl and $65.0/bbl respectively at the time of writing.

 

All price data is from 20.05.2025 as of 17:30

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